683 
FXUS64 KMOB 112320 AAA
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
620 PM CDT Fri Oct 11 2019

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z issuance...A cold front approaching from the west slowly moves
through much of the area during the period. A light northerly 
flow follows in the wake of the front. Showers with a few embedded
storms ahead of the front will mainly affect the western half of 
the area this evening, after which coverage diminishes to a few 
spotty patches of light rain later tonight into early Saturday 
morning before ending. VFR conditions are expected to prevail 
through the period except for possible MVFR conditions with 
convection this evening or with overnight patchy fog. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 407 PM CDT Fri Oct 11 2019/ 

NEAR TERM /Now Through Saturday/...A strong upper level trough 
and associated sfc low will lift northeast across the northern 
plains through Saturday as it occludes. A trailing cold front will 
slowly move to near the I-65 corridor by Saturday morning and likely 
stalling across the southeast portions of the area tomorrow 
afternoon. Due to weakening upper dynamics, widespread rain is not 
expected. The highest rain chances will be across western areas 
tonight and offshore on Saturday. Isolated thunderstorms are 
possible, however severe storms are not expected. Much cooler air 
will filter into area tonight in the wake of the front. Highs on 
Saturday will be determined by just how far southeast the front 
makes it with upper 60s across northwest areas to mid/upper 80s 
across the southeast ahead of the front. /13

SHORT TERM /Saturday night Through Monday night/...An upper level
trough over the eastern CONUS will broaden out through Sunday
leading to more zonal flow aloft. The adjacent surface low will
become vertically stacked with the upper low over the Great Lakes
and the cold front associated with the low will slowly sag south
to around the I-65 corridor Saturday night. Behind the front, 
PWATS will fall below 1.5 inches for most of the area as a 
relatively speaking "cooler" airmass attempts to move into the
area.

This drier/cooler airmass will give way as surface high pressure 
is expected to build over the western atlantic/mid-atlantic state 
leading to southeasterly return flow to develop. The weak frontal
boundary/surface trough will begin to slowly drift north back over
our area by Monday and re-orient in an west to east orientation. 
Increased rain chances will be focused along the retreating 
boundary as several shortwave impulses move through the zonal flow
and moisture flux increases along the boundary. Monday will 
likely begin a period of "wetter" weather as the diffused boundary
waffles from south to north over our area. 

Temperatures will luckily be a tick closer to normal Sunday and
Monday with highs in the low 80s inland and mid 80s at the coast.
This will likely be driven by increased cloud cover and rain
chances Sunday and Monday afternoon. Lows will remain in the low
to mid 60s with potentially a few areas in our far northwest
counties could dip into the 50s early Sunday morning. BB/03

LONG TERM /Tuesday Through Friday/...Zonal flow dominates the
beginning of the period as the surface trough remains draped over
the area. As several mid-level impulses move through the flow
Tuesday, scattered to numerous storms will be focused along the 
slow moving boundary that will drift southward during the evening
and north during the afternoons. 

By Wednesday into Thursday, a strong upper level trough will 
amplify over the great lakes region. A reinforcing front will
strengthen over the Mississippi valley and push southward towards
the area. Ahead of the front, moisture will increase and scattered
to potentially numerous storms will be possible Wednesday with the
front clearing the area Thursday. Given this is in the longer
range and the general pattern of model pushing the front further
offshore/quicker. We will have to monitor how the trends play for
the end of the forecast period. One thing to note is that PWATS
will be increasing to near 2 inches Tuesday through Wednesday, 
which could lead to some heavier rain potentials. This is 
especially true if the surface boundary becomes hung up over our 
area longer than anticipated. 

Temperatures will continue to range about 5 degrees above normal
through Wednesday with mainly rain and cloud cover keeping
temperatures down. Lows will slowly creep up into the upper 60s 
to low 70s as the moisture returns. 

MARINE...Moderate southeasterly flow will weaken tonight as a cold 
front approaches the marine area and stalls on Saturday. This will 
create a light offshore flow near the coast with a southeast to east 
flow offshore. The front will lift back to the north Sunday into 
Monday with a southerly flow developing. /13

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday morning for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday morning for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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