683 FXUS64 KMOB 112320 AAA AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Mobile AL 620 PM CDT Fri Oct 11 2019 .DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below. && .AVIATION... 00Z issuance...A cold front approaching from the west slowly moves through much of the area during the period. A light northerly flow follows in the wake of the front. Showers with a few embedded storms ahead of the front will mainly affect the western half of the area this evening, after which coverage diminishes to a few spotty patches of light rain later tonight into early Saturday morning before ending. VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period except for possible MVFR conditions with convection this evening or with overnight patchy fog. /29 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 407 PM CDT Fri Oct 11 2019/ NEAR TERM /Now Through Saturday/...A strong upper level trough and associated sfc low will lift northeast across the northern plains through Saturday as it occludes. A trailing cold front will slowly move to near the I-65 corridor by Saturday morning and likely stalling across the southeast portions of the area tomorrow afternoon. Due to weakening upper dynamics, widespread rain is not expected. The highest rain chances will be across western areas tonight and offshore on Saturday. Isolated thunderstorms are possible, however severe storms are not expected. Much cooler air will filter into area tonight in the wake of the front. Highs on Saturday will be determined by just how far southeast the front makes it with upper 60s across northwest areas to mid/upper 80s across the southeast ahead of the front. /13 SHORT TERM /Saturday night Through Monday night/...An upper level trough over the eastern CONUS will broaden out through Sunday leading to more zonal flow aloft. The adjacent surface low will become vertically stacked with the upper low over the Great Lakes and the cold front associated with the low will slowly sag south to around the I-65 corridor Saturday night. Behind the front, PWATS will fall below 1.5 inches for most of the area as a relatively speaking "cooler" airmass attempts to move into the area. This drier/cooler airmass will give way as surface high pressure is expected to build over the western atlantic/mid-atlantic state leading to southeasterly return flow to develop. The weak frontal boundary/surface trough will begin to slowly drift north back over our area by Monday and re-orient in an west to east orientation. Increased rain chances will be focused along the retreating boundary as several shortwave impulses move through the zonal flow and moisture flux increases along the boundary. Monday will likely begin a period of "wetter" weather as the diffused boundary waffles from south to north over our area. Temperatures will luckily be a tick closer to normal Sunday and Monday with highs in the low 80s inland and mid 80s at the coast. This will likely be driven by increased cloud cover and rain chances Sunday and Monday afternoon. Lows will remain in the low to mid 60s with potentially a few areas in our far northwest counties could dip into the 50s early Sunday morning. BB/03 LONG TERM /Tuesday Through Friday/...Zonal flow dominates the beginning of the period as the surface trough remains draped over the area. As several mid-level impulses move through the flow Tuesday, scattered to numerous storms will be focused along the slow moving boundary that will drift southward during the evening and north during the afternoons. By Wednesday into Thursday, a strong upper level trough will amplify over the great lakes region. A reinforcing front will strengthen over the Mississippi valley and push southward towards the area. Ahead of the front, moisture will increase and scattered to potentially numerous storms will be possible Wednesday with the front clearing the area Thursday. Given this is in the longer range and the general pattern of model pushing the front further offshore/quicker. We will have to monitor how the trends play for the end of the forecast period. One thing to note is that PWATS will be increasing to near 2 inches Tuesday through Wednesday, which could lead to some heavier rain potentials. This is especially true if the surface boundary becomes hung up over our area longer than anticipated. Temperatures will continue to range about 5 degrees above normal through Wednesday with mainly rain and cloud cover keeping temperatures down. Lows will slowly creep up into the upper 60s to low 70s as the moisture returns. MARINE...Moderate southeasterly flow will weaken tonight as a cold front approaches the marine area and stalls on Saturday. This will create a light offshore flow near the coast with a southeast to east flow offshore. The front will lift back to the north Sunday into Monday with a southerly flow developing. /13 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday morning for ALZ265-266. FL...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday morning for FLZ202-204- 206. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: http://weather.gov/mob