379 
FXUS64 KTSA 102025
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
325 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2019

.DISCUSSION...

The main forecast concerns are mainly in the first 48 hours of the
forecast. Severe weather and heavy rain/flooding potential thru
tonight and frost/freeze potential Friday night into Saturday are
the main items of mention.

A strong cold front, in association with a large and powerful
upper level storm system moving east across the country, is moving
across eastern Oklahoma this afternoon. The front has cleared
Tulsa, and the severe tstorm watch in effect for Tulsa will be
dropped soon. Strong to severe storms will remain possible along
and especially ahead of the front thru evening with an unstable
and sheared airmass in place. Tornado potential will be limited by
weakening low level shear thru the afternoon. Damaging winds and
large hail are the main threats. An increase in post-frontal 
showers and storms is expected overnight as isentropic lift 
increases behind the front across eastern OK/western AR. Based on 
the latest QPF forecast, which takes into account the potential 
for multiple rounds of heavy rain producing storms across SE OK 
into NW AR, a flash flood watch was issued thru tonight. Rain 
chances will taper off fairly quickly from west to east after 12Z 
Friday.

Much colder temps will filter into the region behind the front
tonight. Combine this with the winds, and you get wind chills in
the 30s and even some upper 20s by tomorrow morning. Skies will
clear by Friday night and winds will get light with surface high
pressure nearby. This will allow temps to crater and several areas
will get near or below freezing by Saturday morning. As a result,
a freeze watch has been issued for NE OK, a portion of SE OK, and
far NW AR.

The forecast is largely quiet past the potential freeze Saturday
morning. A band of warm advection generated showers and storms
will spread across the Arklatex Saturday night into Sunday but
this activity should stay south. There will be a chance of storms
again early next week ahead of another front. The best chances
will be in the east/southeast.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   40  53  34  65 /  70  10   0   0 
FSM   46  56  36  65 / 100  70   0   0 
MLC   41  55  32  65 /  90  40   0   0 
BVO   39  52  28  64 /  50  10   0   0 
FYV   40  49  29  60 / 100  70   0   0 
BYV   41  51  32  63 / 100  70   0   0 
MKO   41  53  33  64 /  90  40   0   0 
MIO   39  50  32  61 /  80  30   0   0 
F10   40  54  33  65 /  80  20   0   0 
HHW   45  57  35  65 / 100  70   0   0 

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for 
     OKZ054>071-073.

     Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for OKZ049-053-058-062-
     063-065>076.

AR...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for 
     ARZ001-002-010-011.

     Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for ARZ001-002-010-011-
     019-020-029.

&&

$$

LONG TERM....30