379 FXUS64 KTSA 102025 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 325 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2019 .DISCUSSION... The main forecast concerns are mainly in the first 48 hours of the forecast. Severe weather and heavy rain/flooding potential thru tonight and frost/freeze potential Friday night into Saturday are the main items of mention. A strong cold front, in association with a large and powerful upper level storm system moving east across the country, is moving across eastern Oklahoma this afternoon. The front has cleared Tulsa, and the severe tstorm watch in effect for Tulsa will be dropped soon. Strong to severe storms will remain possible along and especially ahead of the front thru evening with an unstable and sheared airmass in place. Tornado potential will be limited by weakening low level shear thru the afternoon. Damaging winds and large hail are the main threats. An increase in post-frontal showers and storms is expected overnight as isentropic lift increases behind the front across eastern OK/western AR. Based on the latest QPF forecast, which takes into account the potential for multiple rounds of heavy rain producing storms across SE OK into NW AR, a flash flood watch was issued thru tonight. Rain chances will taper off fairly quickly from west to east after 12Z Friday. Much colder temps will filter into the region behind the front tonight. Combine this with the winds, and you get wind chills in the 30s and even some upper 20s by tomorrow morning. Skies will clear by Friday night and winds will get light with surface high pressure nearby. This will allow temps to crater and several areas will get near or below freezing by Saturday morning. As a result, a freeze watch has been issued for NE OK, a portion of SE OK, and far NW AR. The forecast is largely quiet past the potential freeze Saturday morning. A band of warm advection generated showers and storms will spread across the Arklatex Saturday night into Sunday but this activity should stay south. There will be a chance of storms again early next week ahead of another front. The best chances will be in the east/southeast. Lacy && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 40 53 34 65 / 70 10 0 0 FSM 46 56 36 65 / 100 70 0 0 MLC 41 55 32 65 / 90 40 0 0 BVO 39 52 28 64 / 50 10 0 0 FYV 40 49 29 60 / 100 70 0 0 BYV 41 51 32 63 / 100 70 0 0 MKO 41 53 33 64 / 90 40 0 0 MIO 39 50 32 61 / 80 30 0 0 F10 40 54 33 65 / 80 20 0 0 HHW 45 57 35 65 / 100 70 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for OKZ054>071-073. Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for OKZ049-053-058-062- 063-065>076. AR...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for ARZ001-002-010-011. Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for ARZ001-002-010-011- 019-020-029. && $$ LONG TERM....30