054 
FXUS62 KFFC 302326
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
726 PM EDT Mon Sep 30 2019



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 327 PM EDT Mon Sep 30 2019/ 

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday Night/...

High pressure aloft that was previously centered over the area has
shifted west some, allowing for moisture riding along the periphery
of the high to move into the area. This will allow for chances for
showers and thunderstorms across the area this afternoon and
evening, although mainly across the mountains and other portions 
of northeastern Georgia. At the surface, high pressure pressure
will continue to build into northeastern portions of the area as a
backdoor front slowly moves in. With much of the rest of the area
remaining dry today is expected to another hot day with high
temperatures about 15 to 20 degrees above average with highs in 
the mid to upper 90s across the area. As of this writing, 
preliminarily, Atlanta has already beaten the previous high 
temperature record (91 degrees from 1941), Athens has currently 
beaten the record (96 degrees from 1933, 1911), as well as Macon 
(95 degrees from 1954/1904). Precip should taper off late this
evening and overnight lows are expected to be in the upper 60s to
low 70s.

For Tuesday, moisture continues to be trapped under the ridge as 
it begins to flatten. As such, have continued slight chance to 
low end chance pops across the mountains for Tuesday afternoon and
evening with the rest of the area expected to remain dry. With 
the flattening of the ridge, high temperatures on Tuesday will be
in the upper 80s in the mountains with lower 90s across the rest 
of the area. Still, at least the high temperature record at
Atlanta will be in jeopardy for Tuesday, where the record high is
89 degrees.

Reaves

LONG TERM /Wednesday through Monday/...

The upper level ridge is expected to remain in place over the 
southeastern CONUS through Thursday, keeping temperatures hot 
through much of the week. During this time, high temperatures are 
anticipated to reach into the mid to upper 90s, or 12 to 18 
degrees above climatological normals, over much of the north and 
central Georgia. These highs will continue to meet or break 
records across the forecast area. The influence of the ridge will 
also keep conditions fairly dry and precipitation chances limited 
across the area.

On Thursday and Friday, the upper ridge will begin to weaken and 
become increasingly elongated. Meanwhile, an upper level trough will 
move eastward across the upper Great Lakes region and into New 
England on late Thursday/early Friday. A surface low associated with 
this trough will drop a cold front into the region, which will move 
from northwest to southeast through the forecast area Thursday night 
into Friday. Model guidance is trending towards better agreement 
that very little precipitation will be associated with this feature. 
Temperatures will then gradually cool after the passage of the 
front, with highs in the low to mid 80s by Sunday. High temperatures 
each afternoon will still remain above average, but at the very 
least are expected to get out of record breaking territory.

King

CLIMATE...

Records for 09-30

               Max Temperature         Min Temperature
  Station      High        Low         High        Low
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      96 1933     60 1957     72 1904     36 1967    
                1911                                        
   KATL      91 1941     56 1920     74 1904     36 1967    
                            1890        1884                
   KCSG     100 1904     63 1957     74 1944     38 1967    
   KMCN      95 1954     61 1957     72 1954     35 1967    
                1904                    1953                
                                        1915                

Records for 10-01

               Max Temperature         Min Temperature
  Station      High        Low         High        Low
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      95 1933     62 1947     69 1933     36 1924    
   KATL      89 1954     59 1920     73 1926     40 1924    
                1926                                        
                1911                                        
   KCSG     100 1904     67 1996     73 1977     43 1924    
                                                    1920    
   KMCN      94 1954     64 1920     74 1911     39 1993    
                                                    1967    

Records for 10-02

               Max Temperature         Min Temperature
  Station      High        Low         High        Low
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      94 1911     53 1958     70 1926     38 1924    
   KATL      89 1986     59 1958     72 1910     42 1895    
                1910                                        
   KCSG      97 1911     62 1958     73 1919     39 1920    
                1904                                        
   KMCN      94 1971     65 1958     72 2005     39 1984    
                                        1926                

Records for 10-03

               Max Temperature         Min Temperature
  Station      High        Low         High        Low
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      91 1986     56 1958     71 2007     38 1974    
   KATL      94 1911     57 1958     70 2007     40 1981    
                                        1986                
                                        1884                
   KCSG      96 1904     62 1958     72 1921     43 1974    
   KMCN      95 1911     60 1958     71 1937     39 2011    
                                        1927                

Records for 10-04

               Max Temperature         Min Temperature
  Station      High        Low         High        Low
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      96 1954     59 1957     71 1941     36 1987    
   KATL      91 2018     61 1957     71 1941     39 1987    
                1954        1899        1884        1974    
                1941                                        
   KCSG      98 1911     65 1975     73 2007     40 1974    
                            1957        1937                
   KMCN      95 1954     61 1899     73 1911     36 1987    
                                                    1974  



&&

.AVIATION...
00Z Update...
Models are progging some IFR/MVFR clouds just to the east of the
ATL metro/airfield overnight. For now, continued with the few015,
but will have to monitor. Winds are very light currently, but
should settle on the east side after dark...with the speeds
continued 3-4kt or less. 

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Med confidence on cigs overnight. Otherwise, high confidence
remaining elements. 

NListemaa

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          70  90  69  93 /  20  20   5   5 
Atlanta         72  91  71  93 /   5  10  10   5 
Blairsville     64  84  63  87 /  20  40  20  10 
Cartersville    70  93  69  95 /   5  10   5   5 
Columbus        73  93  71  96 /   0  10   5   5 
Gainesville     71  88  69  93 /  10  20  10   5 
Macon           70  92  68  95 /   5  10   5   5 
Rome            69  94  69  96 /   5  10   5   5 
Peachtree City  70  91  69  94 /   5  10   5   5 
Vidalia         72  92  68  94 /  10   5   5   5 

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Reaves
LONG TERM....King
AVIATION...NListemaa