054 FXUS62 KFFC 302326 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 726 PM EDT Mon Sep 30 2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 327 PM EDT Mon Sep 30 2019/ SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday Night/... High pressure aloft that was previously centered over the area has shifted west some, allowing for moisture riding along the periphery of the high to move into the area. This will allow for chances for showers and thunderstorms across the area this afternoon and evening, although mainly across the mountains and other portions of northeastern Georgia. At the surface, high pressure pressure will continue to build into northeastern portions of the area as a backdoor front slowly moves in. With much of the rest of the area remaining dry today is expected to another hot day with high temperatures about 15 to 20 degrees above average with highs in the mid to upper 90s across the area. As of this writing, preliminarily, Atlanta has already beaten the previous high temperature record (91 degrees from 1941), Athens has currently beaten the record (96 degrees from 1933, 1911), as well as Macon (95 degrees from 1954/1904). Precip should taper off late this evening and overnight lows are expected to be in the upper 60s to low 70s. For Tuesday, moisture continues to be trapped under the ridge as it begins to flatten. As such, have continued slight chance to low end chance pops across the mountains for Tuesday afternoon and evening with the rest of the area expected to remain dry. With the flattening of the ridge, high temperatures on Tuesday will be in the upper 80s in the mountains with lower 90s across the rest of the area. Still, at least the high temperature record at Atlanta will be in jeopardy for Tuesday, where the record high is 89 degrees. Reaves LONG TERM /Wednesday through Monday/... The upper level ridge is expected to remain in place over the southeastern CONUS through Thursday, keeping temperatures hot through much of the week. During this time, high temperatures are anticipated to reach into the mid to upper 90s, or 12 to 18 degrees above climatological normals, over much of the north and central Georgia. These highs will continue to meet or break records across the forecast area. The influence of the ridge will also keep conditions fairly dry and precipitation chances limited across the area. On Thursday and Friday, the upper ridge will begin to weaken and become increasingly elongated. Meanwhile, an upper level trough will move eastward across the upper Great Lakes region and into New England on late Thursday/early Friday. A surface low associated with this trough will drop a cold front into the region, which will move from northwest to southeast through the forecast area Thursday night into Friday. Model guidance is trending towards better agreement that very little precipitation will be associated with this feature. Temperatures will then gradually cool after the passage of the front, with highs in the low to mid 80s by Sunday. High temperatures each afternoon will still remain above average, but at the very least are expected to get out of record breaking territory. King CLIMATE... Records for 09-30 Max Temperature Min Temperature Station High Low High Low ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAHN 96 1933 60 1957 72 1904 36 1967 1911 KATL 91 1941 56 1920 74 1904 36 1967 1890 1884 KCSG 100 1904 63 1957 74 1944 38 1967 KMCN 95 1954 61 1957 72 1954 35 1967 1904 1953 1915 Records for 10-01 Max Temperature Min Temperature Station High Low High Low ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAHN 95 1933 62 1947 69 1933 36 1924 KATL 89 1954 59 1920 73 1926 40 1924 1926 1911 KCSG 100 1904 67 1996 73 1977 43 1924 1920 KMCN 94 1954 64 1920 74 1911 39 1993 1967 Records for 10-02 Max Temperature Min Temperature Station High Low High Low ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAHN 94 1911 53 1958 70 1926 38 1924 KATL 89 1986 59 1958 72 1910 42 1895 1910 KCSG 97 1911 62 1958 73 1919 39 1920 1904 KMCN 94 1971 65 1958 72 2005 39 1984 1926 Records for 10-03 Max Temperature Min Temperature Station High Low High Low ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAHN 91 1986 56 1958 71 2007 38 1974 KATL 94 1911 57 1958 70 2007 40 1981 1986 1884 KCSG 96 1904 62 1958 72 1921 43 1974 KMCN 95 1911 60 1958 71 1937 39 2011 1927 Records for 10-04 Max Temperature Min Temperature Station High Low High Low ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAHN 96 1954 59 1957 71 1941 36 1987 KATL 91 2018 61 1957 71 1941 39 1987 1954 1899 1884 1974 1941 KCSG 98 1911 65 1975 73 2007 40 1974 1957 1937 KMCN 95 1954 61 1899 73 1911 36 1987 1974 && .AVIATION... 00Z Update... Models are progging some IFR/MVFR clouds just to the east of the ATL metro/airfield overnight. For now, continued with the few015, but will have to monitor. Winds are very light currently, but should settle on the east side after dark...with the speeds continued 3-4kt or less. //ATL Confidence...00Z Update... Med confidence on cigs overnight. Otherwise, high confidence remaining elements. NListemaa && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 70 90 69 93 / 20 20 5 5 Atlanta 72 91 71 93 / 5 10 10 5 Blairsville 64 84 63 87 / 20 40 20 10 Cartersville 70 93 69 95 / 5 10 5 5 Columbus 73 93 71 96 / 0 10 5 5 Gainesville 71 88 69 93 / 10 20 10 5 Macon 70 92 68 95 / 5 10 5 5 Rome 69 94 69 96 / 5 10 5 5 Peachtree City 70 91 69 94 / 5 10 5 5 Vidalia 72 92 68 94 / 10 5 5 5 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Reaves LONG TERM....King AVIATION...NListemaa