170 
FXUS63 KMPX 260401 AAB
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1101 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2019

Short term concerns remain isolated showers/thunder over the
northeast cwa this evening and convective threat again later
Thursday night.

Cooler air on breezy west/northwest winds moving across the area 
this afternoon. Expect winds to diminish this evening. Along with 
the wind, the threat of mainly light showers will continue across 
the northeast CWA through about sunset. HRRR continues to indicate
a few showers this region this evening. Outside chance of thunder
as well, with cool temperatures aloft as trough departs. Jet
mid/high level clouds should translate southeast this evening 
with the cumulus gradually dissipating as well. SHould become 
mainly clear late with lighter winds and very cool temperatures by
Thursday morning. Expecting morning lows mainly in the 40 to 45 
degree range, a bit warmer in the larger city cores. 

Large surface ridge exits to the east during the day Thursday.
This will allow southerly flow and an increasing pressure gradient
to develop ahead of the Dakotas frontal boundary. We expect
mid/high levels clouds to increase during the day with outside
chance of some ACCAS showers to develop over the far northwest CWA
in the afternoon. Southerly surface winds will also increase with
breezy conditions developing west Thursday afternoon, then
spreading east into Thursday night ahead of the front. Better 
shot of showers and thunderstorms developing into Thursday night 
as the front approaches/heights fall and WAA continues. Best shot 
will be found over the eastern half of the area later in the 
night. 

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2019

The long term period features a classic change of season setup, with 
a roller coaster ride of warm vs cool sides of multiple active 
systems passing through the region.

By Friday morning, a positively tilted shortwave trough will be 
centered near the northwest corner of Minnesota, but will lift ENE 
into Ontario during the day. Associated lift along a trailing front 
and favorable jet dynamics will produce showers across eastern MN 
and wester WI mainly in the morning, with dry northwesterly flow 
filling in behind the front later in the day.

High pressure will fill in behind this system into Saturday, which 
should be an a decent day with highs being held near 60. Attention 
turns to a developing system across the western CONUS on Saturday, 
that will intensify and bring strong warm air advection into the 
region Sunday and southerly flow increases ahead of the system. 
Showers and thunderstorms are possible Sunday morning, but with the 
front lifting quickly to our north, drying by the afternoon appears 
likely.

Monday will be a warm day across the area and it wouldn't be a shock 
to see 80 degrees on the final day of September. The system that 
developed to our west over the weekend looks to pass through the 
local area by Tuesday, then leave the main baroclinic zone nearby or 
just south of the local area. The main upper trough that will have 
been parked across the western CONUS will kick out middle of next 
week, and likely impact the upper midwest by Wed or Thursday with 
more chances for additional rain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1101 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2019

VFR conditions through Thursday, but some MVFR cigs are remotely
possible Thursday night. Winds will back southwest and become 
gusty Thursday afternoon and evening from west to east with 
increasing high and mid clouds.

KMSP...Will need to watch winds tomorrow evening, they could be
stronger than currently forecast. Otherwise, no concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Fri...VFR. Chance AM MVFR/TSRA. Wind NW 10G20 kts. 
Sat...VFR. Wind E 5 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...BORGHOFF