170 FXUS63 KMPX 260401 AAB AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1101 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2019 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2019 Short term concerns remain isolated showers/thunder over the northeast cwa this evening and convective threat again later Thursday night. Cooler air on breezy west/northwest winds moving across the area this afternoon. Expect winds to diminish this evening. Along with the wind, the threat of mainly light showers will continue across the northeast CWA through about sunset. HRRR continues to indicate a few showers this region this evening. Outside chance of thunder as well, with cool temperatures aloft as trough departs. Jet mid/high level clouds should translate southeast this evening with the cumulus gradually dissipating as well. SHould become mainly clear late with lighter winds and very cool temperatures by Thursday morning. Expecting morning lows mainly in the 40 to 45 degree range, a bit warmer in the larger city cores. Large surface ridge exits to the east during the day Thursday. This will allow southerly flow and an increasing pressure gradient to develop ahead of the Dakotas frontal boundary. We expect mid/high levels clouds to increase during the day with outside chance of some ACCAS showers to develop over the far northwest CWA in the afternoon. Southerly surface winds will also increase with breezy conditions developing west Thursday afternoon, then spreading east into Thursday night ahead of the front. Better shot of showers and thunderstorms developing into Thursday night as the front approaches/heights fall and WAA continues. Best shot will be found over the eastern half of the area later in the night. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2019 The long term period features a classic change of season setup, with a roller coaster ride of warm vs cool sides of multiple active systems passing through the region. By Friday morning, a positively tilted shortwave trough will be centered near the northwest corner of Minnesota, but will lift ENE into Ontario during the day. Associated lift along a trailing front and favorable jet dynamics will produce showers across eastern MN and wester WI mainly in the morning, with dry northwesterly flow filling in behind the front later in the day. High pressure will fill in behind this system into Saturday, which should be an a decent day with highs being held near 60. Attention turns to a developing system across the western CONUS on Saturday, that will intensify and bring strong warm air advection into the region Sunday and southerly flow increases ahead of the system. Showers and thunderstorms are possible Sunday morning, but with the front lifting quickly to our north, drying by the afternoon appears likely. Monday will be a warm day across the area and it wouldn't be a shock to see 80 degrees on the final day of September. The system that developed to our west over the weekend looks to pass through the local area by Tuesday, then leave the main baroclinic zone nearby or just south of the local area. The main upper trough that will have been parked across the western CONUS will kick out middle of next week, and likely impact the upper midwest by Wed or Thursday with more chances for additional rain. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) Issued at 1101 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2019 VFR conditions through Thursday, but some MVFR cigs are remotely possible Thursday night. Winds will back southwest and become gusty Thursday afternoon and evening from west to east with increasing high and mid clouds. KMSP...Will need to watch winds tomorrow evening, they could be stronger than currently forecast. Otherwise, no concerns. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ Fri...VFR. Chance AM MVFR/TSRA. Wind NW 10G20 kts. Sat...VFR. Wind E 5 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DWE LONG TERM...SPD AVIATION...BORGHOFF