095 
FXUS64 KFWD 251149 AAB
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
649 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2019


.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFs/

The latest radar imagery from KFWS reveals some light showers
across the far northeastern portion of the Bonham cornerpost this
morning. This activity should not impact the Metroplex terminals
and should dissipate within the next few hours. A deck of MVFR
ceilings blossomed across deep Central Texas this morning in
response to a low-level jet. While a few pockets of stratus 
attempted to edge northeastward towards Waco, these brief 
ceilings have dissipated prior to reaching a KLZZ-KGRK-KLHB line. 
With this issuance, removed the mention of MVFR ceilings at ACT,
DAL, and GKY.

VFR will prevail at all sites with southerly winds near 10-13
knots and possibly some higher gusts. Similar to this morning, a
low potential for storms exists early Thursday morning across the
Bonham cornerpost, but a direct impact to the Metroplex sites is 
not expected. 

Garcia

&&


.SHORT TERM... /Issued 343 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2019/
/Through Thursday/

Above-normal temperatures will be the main highlight through 
Thursday as upper level ridging continues to dominate across the 
region. There are some low rain/storm chances along the Red River 
Thursday morning, but not many will see rain.

The latest GOES-16 Total Precipitable Water derived product
reveals the highest PWATs are across the far northeastern portions
of the region with values near 1.9 inches. The high moisture
content, in combination with a weak mid-level impulse translating
eastward, may allow for some light showers to develop this
morning, mainly across the far northeastern counties. Maintained
some low (15%) PoPs to account for this potential through the
morning hours. Otherwise, most of North and Central Texas will
begin the day with some morning low-level cloud cover. These 
clouds should scatter out by late morning and result in partly to 
mostly sunny skies. I expect the remainder of the day to remain
rain-free across the region as there isn't really any appreciable
forcing to initiate isolated to scattered activity as previous
days. Afternoon highs will be well above seasonal normals for 
late September, ranging from the mid to upper 90s.

A shortwave trough across the Midwest will eject a weak frontal
boundary across the Central Plains this afternoon/evening. While 
this feature will not impact North Texas, a cluster of 
thunderstorms associated with the front is expected to develop 
across Kansas/Oklahoma and progress southward tonight. High res 
guidance, including the extended HRRR and the NAM NEST, keep the 
progression of the activity mainly across the Ark-La-Tex region, 
but it is possible areas along the Red River (mainly east of the 
I-35 corridor) may wake up Thursday morning to some isolated to 
scattered rain/storms. Morning PoPs will remain near 20% across
the far northeastern counties. Otherwise, Thursday will be 
similar to today, with mostly rain-free conditions and
unseasonably warm temperatures.

Garcia

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 343 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2019/
/Friday through Tuesday/

Rain/storm chances continue this weekend across North and Central
Texas. As has been the theme over the last week, only select
locations will see showers/storms. Unfortunately, the above normal
warmth is likely to persist through at least the middle of next
week. Fortunately, there does appear as if there could be a 
respite from the heat after mid-week.  

Above normal warmth will continue on Friday across North and
Central Texas as the upper air pattern starts to shift. The closed 
upper low currently across the Pacific Southwest will slowly 
emerge on Friday, though models do offer slightly different 
solutions with respect to the timing. I've favored the slower a 
slower timing by the ECMWF as guidance does have a tendency to 
eject upper lows in the southern stream flow a little too quickly.
This translates to a hot day on Friday, with the better rain 
chances not really arriving until the pre-dawn hours on Saturday.
In the meantime, highs on Friday will soar above normals as 
slightly veered low level flow ahead of an approaching cold front 
is expected to result in a slight downslope component to the 
surface wind field. Highs will be nearly 10 degrees above normal 
and I've hedged high temperatures toward the warmer guidance. 
Initially it was believed that a weak perturbation would ripple 
northeastward in the southwest flow aloft. Given the slower timing
of the main trough, I've removed the mention of rain showers from
the current forecast during the daylight hours on Friday.

Late Friday night into Saturday will feature increasing 
rain/storm chances, initially along the Red River. The 
aformentioned front will stall and eventually retreat northward 
as the main upper trough axis translates eastward across Oklahoma.
Most model guidance is in fair agreement that a modest mid/upper 
level jet streak (around 60-70 knots) will overspread southern 
Oklahoma and place much of North and Central Texas beneath the 
RRQ of the stronger flow aloft. This should result in at least 
modest lift and ultimately yield scattered convection---initially
along the frontal boundary to the north. With a 30-35 knot LLJ 
transporting higher theta-e air northward, it's conceivable that 
there will likely be a loosely organized line or cluster of storms
that dives east and southeast out of Oklahoma into North Texas. 
There is still a large amount of uncertainty with the exact 
evolution of showers/storms, but confidence is high enough to 
warrant high chance PoPs (around 50 percent) along the Red River 
late Friday into Saturday. At this time, severe weather chances 
don't appear high given the time of day. However, there will be 
decent kinematics and likely modest instability so a strong storm 
or two capable of gusty outflow winds cannot be discounted. High 
temperatures on Saturday will be a little lower along the Red 
River where the most dense cloud cover and more concentrated 
rain/storm activity is anticipated. Farther south across Central
Texas, Saturday's highs will be within a degree or two of 
Friday's. There will be a risk for isolated showers/storms across 
the Brazos Valley and Central Texas, likely associated with sea-
breeze type convection. Overnight lows will remain above normal as
some nocturnal mixing of the stronger flow aloft occurs and 
stratus invades the region during peak cooling.

Sunday presents probably the most difficult part of the forecast.
Model blends are very high with PoPs, and while low level 
moisture does increase, there aren't really any signs of 
appreciable large scale ascent---outside of diurnal heating. 
While the region could be on the edge of the "ring of fire" as the
heart of the mid-level ridge resides to the east, height 
tendencies are largely neutral. A consensus of MOS guidance 
appears to capture the appropriate coverage and gradient (highest 
PoPs across the Big Country where ridging is less pronounced). 
I'll lean heavily on these values and advertise a 20 to 30 PoP for
Sunday. There should at least be an increase in afternoon cumulus
clouds which may help to keep temperatures from climbing into the
mid 90s. Breezy conditions will likely persist and could take the
edge of the unseasonably hot conditions as well. 

Monday into the middle of next week should feature dwindling rain
chances as the mid-level ridge slowly retrogrades back to the 
west and southwest. Beyond the range of our official 
forecast...model agreement with respect to a cold front during the
middle to end portion of next week continues to be fair, though 
there has been some model run-to-run variability. The 00 UTC 
ECMWF and GFS do align better with respect to timing and suggest a
midday Thursday FROPA across most of North and Central Texas. 
Mid-level ridging across the region would likely result in little
to no rain/storm chances with FROPA, but decent pressure rises 
and stronger 925mb flow imply the potential for a good north 
breeze and solid CAA. Preliminary glances at high temperatures 
from guidance (should it verify) suggests that Thursday high 
temperatures will only make it into the low 80s along the Red 
River to upper 80s/low 90s across Central Texas. For now, stay 
tuned as refinements to the forecast are likely. 

Bain

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    96  77  95  75  95 /   0   0  10  10   5 
Waco                94  75  96  72  96 /   0   0   5  10   5 
Paris               89  72  89  70  91 /  20   5  20  10   0 
Denton              94  76  94  74  94 /   0   0  10  10   5 
McKinney            94  74  94  73  94 /   5   0  20  10   5 
Dallas              96  78  95  76  96 /   0   0  10  10   5 
Terrell             94  74  95  72  94 /   0   0   5  10   0 
Corsicana           94  74  94  72  95 /   0   0   5  10   0 
Temple              94  74  95  71  96 /   0   0   5  10   5 
Mineral Wells       95  73  95  73  96 /   5   0  10  10  10 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

22/24