095 FXUS64 KFWD 251149 AAB AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 649 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2019 .AVIATION... /12Z TAFs/ The latest radar imagery from KFWS reveals some light showers across the far northeastern portion of the Bonham cornerpost this morning. This activity should not impact the Metroplex terminals and should dissipate within the next few hours. A deck of MVFR ceilings blossomed across deep Central Texas this morning in response to a low-level jet. While a few pockets of stratus attempted to edge northeastward towards Waco, these brief ceilings have dissipated prior to reaching a KLZZ-KGRK-KLHB line. With this issuance, removed the mention of MVFR ceilings at ACT, DAL, and GKY. VFR will prevail at all sites with southerly winds near 10-13 knots and possibly some higher gusts. Similar to this morning, a low potential for storms exists early Thursday morning across the Bonham cornerpost, but a direct impact to the Metroplex sites is not expected. Garcia && .SHORT TERM... /Issued 343 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2019/ /Through Thursday/ Above-normal temperatures will be the main highlight through Thursday as upper level ridging continues to dominate across the region. There are some low rain/storm chances along the Red River Thursday morning, but not many will see rain. The latest GOES-16 Total Precipitable Water derived product reveals the highest PWATs are across the far northeastern portions of the region with values near 1.9 inches. The high moisture content, in combination with a weak mid-level impulse translating eastward, may allow for some light showers to develop this morning, mainly across the far northeastern counties. Maintained some low (15%) PoPs to account for this potential through the morning hours. Otherwise, most of North and Central Texas will begin the day with some morning low-level cloud cover. These clouds should scatter out by late morning and result in partly to mostly sunny skies. I expect the remainder of the day to remain rain-free across the region as there isn't really any appreciable forcing to initiate isolated to scattered activity as previous days. Afternoon highs will be well above seasonal normals for late September, ranging from the mid to upper 90s. A shortwave trough across the Midwest will eject a weak frontal boundary across the Central Plains this afternoon/evening. While this feature will not impact North Texas, a cluster of thunderstorms associated with the front is expected to develop across Kansas/Oklahoma and progress southward tonight. High res guidance, including the extended HRRR and the NAM NEST, keep the progression of the activity mainly across the Ark-La-Tex region, but it is possible areas along the Red River (mainly east of the I-35 corridor) may wake up Thursday morning to some isolated to scattered rain/storms. Morning PoPs will remain near 20% across the far northeastern counties. Otherwise, Thursday will be similar to today, with mostly rain-free conditions and unseasonably warm temperatures. Garcia && .LONG TERM... /Issued 343 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2019/ /Friday through Tuesday/ Rain/storm chances continue this weekend across North and Central Texas. As has been the theme over the last week, only select locations will see showers/storms. Unfortunately, the above normal warmth is likely to persist through at least the middle of next week. Fortunately, there does appear as if there could be a respite from the heat after mid-week. Above normal warmth will continue on Friday across North and Central Texas as the upper air pattern starts to shift. The closed upper low currently across the Pacific Southwest will slowly emerge on Friday, though models do offer slightly different solutions with respect to the timing. I've favored the slower a slower timing by the ECMWF as guidance does have a tendency to eject upper lows in the southern stream flow a little too quickly. This translates to a hot day on Friday, with the better rain chances not really arriving until the pre-dawn hours on Saturday. In the meantime, highs on Friday will soar above normals as slightly veered low level flow ahead of an approaching cold front is expected to result in a slight downslope component to the surface wind field. Highs will be nearly 10 degrees above normal and I've hedged high temperatures toward the warmer guidance. Initially it was believed that a weak perturbation would ripple northeastward in the southwest flow aloft. Given the slower timing of the main trough, I've removed the mention of rain showers from the current forecast during the daylight hours on Friday. Late Friday night into Saturday will feature increasing rain/storm chances, initially along the Red River. The aformentioned front will stall and eventually retreat northward as the main upper trough axis translates eastward across Oklahoma. Most model guidance is in fair agreement that a modest mid/upper level jet streak (around 60-70 knots) will overspread southern Oklahoma and place much of North and Central Texas beneath the RRQ of the stronger flow aloft. This should result in at least modest lift and ultimately yield scattered convection---initially along the frontal boundary to the north. With a 30-35 knot LLJ transporting higher theta-e air northward, it's conceivable that there will likely be a loosely organized line or cluster of storms that dives east and southeast out of Oklahoma into North Texas. There is still a large amount of uncertainty with the exact evolution of showers/storms, but confidence is high enough to warrant high chance PoPs (around 50 percent) along the Red River late Friday into Saturday. At this time, severe weather chances don't appear high given the time of day. However, there will be decent kinematics and likely modest instability so a strong storm or two capable of gusty outflow winds cannot be discounted. High temperatures on Saturday will be a little lower along the Red River where the most dense cloud cover and more concentrated rain/storm activity is anticipated. Farther south across Central Texas, Saturday's highs will be within a degree or two of Friday's. There will be a risk for isolated showers/storms across the Brazos Valley and Central Texas, likely associated with sea- breeze type convection. Overnight lows will remain above normal as some nocturnal mixing of the stronger flow aloft occurs and stratus invades the region during peak cooling. Sunday presents probably the most difficult part of the forecast. Model blends are very high with PoPs, and while low level moisture does increase, there aren't really any signs of appreciable large scale ascent---outside of diurnal heating. While the region could be on the edge of the "ring of fire" as the heart of the mid-level ridge resides to the east, height tendencies are largely neutral. A consensus of MOS guidance appears to capture the appropriate coverage and gradient (highest PoPs across the Big Country where ridging is less pronounced). I'll lean heavily on these values and advertise a 20 to 30 PoP for Sunday. There should at least be an increase in afternoon cumulus clouds which may help to keep temperatures from climbing into the mid 90s. Breezy conditions will likely persist and could take the edge of the unseasonably hot conditions as well. Monday into the middle of next week should feature dwindling rain chances as the mid-level ridge slowly retrogrades back to the west and southwest. Beyond the range of our official forecast...model agreement with respect to a cold front during the middle to end portion of next week continues to be fair, though there has been some model run-to-run variability. The 00 UTC ECMWF and GFS do align better with respect to timing and suggest a midday Thursday FROPA across most of North and Central Texas. Mid-level ridging across the region would likely result in little to no rain/storm chances with FROPA, but decent pressure rises and stronger 925mb flow imply the potential for a good north breeze and solid CAA. Preliminary glances at high temperatures from guidance (should it verify) suggests that Thursday high temperatures will only make it into the low 80s along the Red River to upper 80s/low 90s across Central Texas. For now, stay tuned as refinements to the forecast are likely. Bain && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 96 77 95 75 95 / 0 0 10 10 5 Waco 94 75 96 72 96 / 0 0 5 10 5 Paris 89 72 89 70 91 / 20 5 20 10 0 Denton 94 76 94 74 94 / 0 0 10 10 5 McKinney 94 74 94 73 94 / 5 0 20 10 5 Dallas 96 78 95 76 96 / 0 0 10 10 5 Terrell 94 74 95 72 94 / 0 0 5 10 0 Corsicana 94 74 94 72 95 / 0 0 5 10 0 Temple 94 74 95 71 96 / 0 0 5 10 5 Mineral Wells 95 73 95 73 96 / 5 0 10 10 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 22/24