774 
FXUS62 KJAX 291331
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
931 AM EDT Thu Aug 29 2019

...DORIAN MAY THREATEN OUR REGION DURING LABOR DAY WEEKEND...
...PLEASE STAY TUNED TO OFFICIAL FORECAST INFORMATION FROM THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...

.UPDATE...
A frontal boundary will stall south of an Ocala to Palm Coast line
today, with much drier air across the region today. The 12Z 
sounding this morning shows this much drier atmosphere, with 
precipitable water values of only 1.4 inches. Mostly dry 
conditions will prevail today, with just a few showers possible 
towards Flagler County. Breezy northeasterly winds will develop
this afternoon and increase on Friday with increasing rain
chances. For today, warm temperatures will prevail with highs in
the low to mid 90s inland and the upper 80s at the beaches. 

The tides are running high due to the New Moon cycle, and will 
continue to run higher due to increasing northeasterly winds 
tonight into the weekend. A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect 
for the beaches and the St. Johns River. 


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected through the day today with increasing
northeasterly winds. Showers will increase in coverage overnight
tonight and through the day on Friday. 

&&

.MARINE...
Northeast flow develops today at 10-15 knots with seas building up
to 4-6 ft offshore and have placed SCEC headline for now that will
expand to all waters tonight for NE winds 15-20 knots. Onshore
flow continues Friday and Saturday with seas building into the 5-7
ft range with SCA headlines likely required prior to any potential
Tropical Storm and/or Hurricane conditions developing late Sunday
into Labor Day time frame.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk of rip currents as Northeast flow
develops today and continues on Friday. Swells ahead of Dorian
will reach the coast combined with onshore flow by Saturday and
high risk of rip currents and minor to moderate beach erosion
possible.

Coastal Flood: Above normal tides due to the New Moon cycle and
developing onshore will push high tide cycles to minor coastal
flood levels by later today and will continue with each high tide
cycle into the weekend prior to more direct impacts from Dorian
early next week. Tidal departures up to 1-2 ft above normal by
this weekend. Departures will be highest along the Atlc coast
through the end of the week and slowly increase in the St Johns
River by the weekend as Northeast flow slowly traps water with
each tide cycle. Bottom line is Minor Tidal flooding potential
expected into the weekend for now, with details for impacts from
Dorian to be determined on Sunday into Monday time frame.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  93  68  90  72 /   0   0  10  20 
SSI  89  77  86  77 /   0   0  40  50 
JAX  93  74  87  75 /   0  10  50  50 
SGJ  89  76  85  75 /  10  50  60  50 
GNV  94  72  88  73 /  10   0  60  20 
OCF  95  73  89  74 /  10  10  60  20 

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EDT Sunday for Clay-Coastal 
     Duval-Coastal Flagler-Coastal Nassau-Coastal St. Johns-
     Inland Duval-Inland Nassau-Inland St. Johns-Putnam.

GA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EDT Sunday for Coastal Camden-
     Coastal Glynn-Inland Camden-Inland Glynn.

AM...None.
&&

$$

Kennedy/Nelson/McGinnis