774 FXUS62 KJAX 291331 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 931 AM EDT Thu Aug 29 2019 ...DORIAN MAY THREATEN OUR REGION DURING LABOR DAY WEEKEND... ...PLEASE STAY TUNED TO OFFICIAL FORECAST INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER... .UPDATE... A frontal boundary will stall south of an Ocala to Palm Coast line today, with much drier air across the region today. The 12Z sounding this morning shows this much drier atmosphere, with precipitable water values of only 1.4 inches. Mostly dry conditions will prevail today, with just a few showers possible towards Flagler County. Breezy northeasterly winds will develop this afternoon and increase on Friday with increasing rain chances. For today, warm temperatures will prevail with highs in the low to mid 90s inland and the upper 80s at the beaches. The tides are running high due to the New Moon cycle, and will continue to run higher due to increasing northeasterly winds tonight into the weekend. A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for the beaches and the St. Johns River. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions expected through the day today with increasing northeasterly winds. Showers will increase in coverage overnight tonight and through the day on Friday. && .MARINE... Northeast flow develops today at 10-15 knots with seas building up to 4-6 ft offshore and have placed SCEC headline for now that will expand to all waters tonight for NE winds 15-20 knots. Onshore flow continues Friday and Saturday with seas building into the 5-7 ft range with SCA headlines likely required prior to any potential Tropical Storm and/or Hurricane conditions developing late Sunday into Labor Day time frame. Rip Currents: Moderate risk of rip currents as Northeast flow develops today and continues on Friday. Swells ahead of Dorian will reach the coast combined with onshore flow by Saturday and high risk of rip currents and minor to moderate beach erosion possible. Coastal Flood: Above normal tides due to the New Moon cycle and developing onshore will push high tide cycles to minor coastal flood levels by later today and will continue with each high tide cycle into the weekend prior to more direct impacts from Dorian early next week. Tidal departures up to 1-2 ft above normal by this weekend. Departures will be highest along the Atlc coast through the end of the week and slowly increase in the St Johns River by the weekend as Northeast flow slowly traps water with each tide cycle. Bottom line is Minor Tidal flooding potential expected into the weekend for now, with details for impacts from Dorian to be determined on Sunday into Monday time frame. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 93 68 90 72 / 0 0 10 20 SSI 89 77 86 77 / 0 0 40 50 JAX 93 74 87 75 / 0 10 50 50 SGJ 89 76 85 75 / 10 50 60 50 GNV 94 72 88 73 / 10 0 60 20 OCF 95 73 89 74 / 10 10 60 20 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EDT Sunday for Clay-Coastal Duval-Coastal Flagler-Coastal Nassau-Coastal St. Johns- Inland Duval-Inland Nassau-Inland St. Johns-Putnam. GA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EDT Sunday for Coastal Camden- Coastal Glynn-Inland Camden-Inland Glynn. AM...None. && $$ Kennedy/Nelson/McGinnis