546 
FXUS64 KFWD 161833 AAB
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
133 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFs/

No concerns. VFR with south flow.

A mid-level ridge axis is displaced equatorward of our latitude
but will continue to dominate the weather across North and Central
Texas. This afternoon, our TAF sites will be within the rain-free
zone between the convective complex on the Springfield Plateau and
sea breeze activity in Southeast Texas. Decaying dryline storms 
may impact northwest arrivals late Saturday, but otherwise, no 
impacts are anticipated through the weekend.

25

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 304 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019/
/Through Tonight/

Hot and dry weather will be the general theme during the short
term. Beneath zonal mid/upper-level winds, boundary-layer return 
flow will continue to transport Gulf moisture northward across our
region. With that said, enough dry air aloft and sufficiently 
deep mixing should lower dew points into the upper 50s to 60s 
around the time of peak heating. Therefore, despite temperatures 
reaching or exceeding 100 in several locations this afternoon, 
heat indices are forecast to primarily remain in the 100-105 
range. While a few spots may briefly exceed heat advisory 
criteria, such conditions should remain too spotty/brief to 
necessitate issuance for today. With that said, further moistening
into the weekend will likely push indices past advisory criteria 
(read the long-term section for more info).

In tandem with the heat, expect plenty of sunshine today. Some
deeper cumulus may approach/develop across the Brazos Valley by
afternoon, but weak deep-layer ascent and lack of deeper moisture
are expected to preclude activity at this time. A stray shower or
two cannot be ruled out, though.

Picca

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 304 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019/
/Saturday through Next Week/

An active storm track will continue across the northern half of 
the CONUS while a broad ridge helps to maintain the hot and benign
weather here at home. That said, a particularly strong shortwave 
will likely produce widespread convection in the Central Plains on
Saturday. We will need to keep an eye on this activity, as it is 
possible that the southern edge of the convection will affect our
northwest zones Saturday evening. Chance to slight chance POPs
have been added for areas generally north and west of the DFW
Metroplex for the Saturday evening period. The rest of the region
should remain devoid of precipitation.

The primary concern will be the increasing temperatures and heat
indices Saturday through the first half of next week as the ridge
strengthens overhead. Triple digit high temperatures will be
common for areas along and west of the Interstate 35 corridor. For
areas east of I-35, regardless of whether the ambient temperature
remains in the upper 90s or reaches 100, a more moisture-laden 
airmass will make apparent temperatures soar above 105 each
afternoon. A heat advisory will likely become necessary for some
or all of the region starting at some point this weekend.

Above-normal temperatures and dangerous heat indices should
continue through the middle part of next week as the ridge remains
dominant. During the second half of the week, the ridge is progged
to break down as multiple shortwave disturbances invade from the
north. This should bring temperatures back to near-normal values,
giving us a break from the triple digit heat. These upper level 
disturbances may also bring a chance of showers and storms, though
at this time the POPs will remain conservative (below 20 percent)
due to significant discrepancies in model guidance regarding the 
strength of these features. We will also need to keep an eye on 
the tropics, as it looks like there is some potential development
in the western Gulf during the day 8-10 time frame, and we are
entering the more active period of the tropical season.

30

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth   101  81 100  80 100 /   0   0   5  10   0 
Waco               100  78 100  79 100 /   0   0   5   5   0 
Paris               96  74  97  76  96 /   0   0   0   5   5 
Denton             100  78  99  79  99 /   0   0   5  20   0 
McKinney            99  76  98  79  98 /   0   0   5  10   5 
Dallas             101  81 100  81 100 /   0   0   5  10   0 
Terrell             99  76  98  79  98 /   0   0   5   5   0 
Corsicana           99  76  98  77  99 /   0   0   5   5   0 
Temple             100  77  99  77 100 /  10   5   5   5   0 
Mineral Wells      101  76 101  77 101 /   0   0   5  20   0 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

25/91