546 FXUS64 KFWD 161833 AAB AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 133 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019 .AVIATION... /18Z TAFs/ No concerns. VFR with south flow. A mid-level ridge axis is displaced equatorward of our latitude but will continue to dominate the weather across North and Central Texas. This afternoon, our TAF sites will be within the rain-free zone between the convective complex on the Springfield Plateau and sea breeze activity in Southeast Texas. Decaying dryline storms may impact northwest arrivals late Saturday, but otherwise, no impacts are anticipated through the weekend. 25 && .SHORT TERM... /Issued 304 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019/ /Through Tonight/ Hot and dry weather will be the general theme during the short term. Beneath zonal mid/upper-level winds, boundary-layer return flow will continue to transport Gulf moisture northward across our region. With that said, enough dry air aloft and sufficiently deep mixing should lower dew points into the upper 50s to 60s around the time of peak heating. Therefore, despite temperatures reaching or exceeding 100 in several locations this afternoon, heat indices are forecast to primarily remain in the 100-105 range. While a few spots may briefly exceed heat advisory criteria, such conditions should remain too spotty/brief to necessitate issuance for today. With that said, further moistening into the weekend will likely push indices past advisory criteria (read the long-term section for more info). In tandem with the heat, expect plenty of sunshine today. Some deeper cumulus may approach/develop across the Brazos Valley by afternoon, but weak deep-layer ascent and lack of deeper moisture are expected to preclude activity at this time. A stray shower or two cannot be ruled out, though. Picca && .LONG TERM... /Issued 304 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019/ /Saturday through Next Week/ An active storm track will continue across the northern half of the CONUS while a broad ridge helps to maintain the hot and benign weather here at home. That said, a particularly strong shortwave will likely produce widespread convection in the Central Plains on Saturday. We will need to keep an eye on this activity, as it is possible that the southern edge of the convection will affect our northwest zones Saturday evening. Chance to slight chance POPs have been added for areas generally north and west of the DFW Metroplex for the Saturday evening period. The rest of the region should remain devoid of precipitation. The primary concern will be the increasing temperatures and heat indices Saturday through the first half of next week as the ridge strengthens overhead. Triple digit high temperatures will be common for areas along and west of the Interstate 35 corridor. For areas east of I-35, regardless of whether the ambient temperature remains in the upper 90s or reaches 100, a more moisture-laden airmass will make apparent temperatures soar above 105 each afternoon. A heat advisory will likely become necessary for some or all of the region starting at some point this weekend. Above-normal temperatures and dangerous heat indices should continue through the middle part of next week as the ridge remains dominant. During the second half of the week, the ridge is progged to break down as multiple shortwave disturbances invade from the north. This should bring temperatures back to near-normal values, giving us a break from the triple digit heat. These upper level disturbances may also bring a chance of showers and storms, though at this time the POPs will remain conservative (below 20 percent) due to significant discrepancies in model guidance regarding the strength of these features. We will also need to keep an eye on the tropics, as it looks like there is some potential development in the western Gulf during the day 8-10 time frame, and we are entering the more active period of the tropical season. 30 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 101 81 100 80 100 / 0 0 5 10 0 Waco 100 78 100 79 100 / 0 0 5 5 0 Paris 96 74 97 76 96 / 0 0 0 5 5 Denton 100 78 99 79 99 / 0 0 5 20 0 McKinney 99 76 98 79 98 / 0 0 5 10 5 Dallas 101 81 100 81 100 / 0 0 5 10 0 Terrell 99 76 98 79 98 / 0 0 5 5 0 Corsicana 99 76 98 77 99 / 0 0 5 5 0 Temple 100 77 99 77 100 / 10 5 5 5 0 Mineral Wells 101 76 101 77 101 / 0 0 5 20 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 25/91