260 
FXUS62 KFFC 061750
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
150 PM EDT Tue Aug 6 2019


.UPDATE...
Updated for 18Z aviation discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1102 AM EDT Tue Aug 6 2019/ 

UPDATE...

Fog has mostly dissipated across much of the area, but there are
still a few spots across eastern central Georgia with some
lingering fog. This fog should continue to lift through the rest 
of the morning. Aside from a few tweaks to cloud cover and
temperatures due to lingering fog, few changes have been made to 
forecast and the rest of the forecast looks to be on track for 
this afternoon.

Reaves

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 742 AM EDT Tue Aug 6 2019/ 

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 338 AM EDT Tue Aug 6 2019/ 

Morning Area Forecast Discussion...

SHORT TERM /Today through Wednesday/...

Despite some drier air working in at the mid levels, still plenty
of surface moisture available this morning. This has and will
continue to manifest itself in the form of some low clouds and
patchy fog, especially over portions of Central GA. Temperatures
currently pretty seasonal but perhaps a degree or two cooler than
this time last night.

Models continue to trend drier for this afternoon with the mid
levels with precipitable water for all of North GA falling to
around 1.20 inches. In fact, models indicate locales in the
mountains will fall to below and inch for this afternoon. This
along with a lack of instability will all but shut down pop
chances for today north of I20. Hi res does indicate some spotty
activity across the metro and will keep isolated pops in but even
this may be a stretch given aforementioned factors.

Our respite from scattered pops will be short lived as we see a
shortwave arrive in NW flow regime. Acting in tandem with this
shortwave will be an increase in instability to around 2000 J/KG
and a likewise increase in mid level moisture. Pops may be
decidedly less diurnal in nature given timing of the mid level
energy which looks to move across the northern tier counties
during the morning. 

Deese

LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Monday/...

At the start of the long term period, the axis of the broad upper-
level trough that has been affecting the southeastern CONUS will 
move east of the forecast area. A mid-level front accompanying 
the trough axis will push into the region preceding a dry airmass
with PWATS around 1" that will move over most of north and 
portions of central Georgia Thursday afternoon. This will be a 
welcome relief from the regular summertime diurnal pattern, 
bringing stability to the region and reducing precip chances.

The relief will be short-lived, however, as high level northwest 
flow will bring monsoonal airmass around the high-amplitude ridge in 
the Southwestern US. PWATS will quickly rebound to above 2" by 
Friday evening with moderate SBCAPE values between 1000-2000 J/kg. 
This extremely moist airmass will settle in over the Southeastern 
CONUS through the rest of the long term period.

Through the long term, Highs in the 90s are expected with the 
arrival of the moist airmass towards the end of the week,
generally 5 degrees above the climatological norm.

Thiem

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...

Mainly VFR cigs across the area with some leftover MVFR cigs mixed
in with a cu field around 4-6kft. Highest chances for TSRA today 
will be at MCN/CSG with only VCSH after 19Z at metro taf sites. 
Prob30 has been included for Wed afternoon as pops are higher 
across the area, starting 17Z. Winds will be mainly on the west 
side through the taf cycle around 4-7kts, becoming more SW and 
light and variable overnight then more west Wednesday afternoon 
around 5-8kts. 

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium on tsra timing early afternoon & early fog. Medium to high
on all other elements. 

Reaves

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          92  71  91  70 /  20  10  30  20 
Atlanta         90  72  89  72 /  20  10  30  20 
Blairsville     84  64  81  62 /  20  20  30  20 
Cartersville    91  71  89  70 /   5  10  30  20 
Columbus        91  73  92  73 /  30  30  40  20 
Gainesville     89  70  88  70 /  20  10  30  20 
Macon           92  72  93  72 /  30  20  40  20 
Rome            92  71  90  70 /  10  20  30  20 
Peachtree City  91  71  90  71 /  20  20  30  20 
Vidalia         93  73  94  73 /  30  20  40  30 

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Deese
LONG TERM....Thiem
AVIATION...Reaves