260 FXUS62 KFFC 061750 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 150 PM EDT Tue Aug 6 2019 .UPDATE... Updated for 18Z aviation discussion. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1102 AM EDT Tue Aug 6 2019/ UPDATE... Fog has mostly dissipated across much of the area, but there are still a few spots across eastern central Georgia with some lingering fog. This fog should continue to lift through the rest of the morning. Aside from a few tweaks to cloud cover and temperatures due to lingering fog, few changes have been made to forecast and the rest of the forecast looks to be on track for this afternoon. Reaves PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 742 AM EDT Tue Aug 6 2019/ PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 338 AM EDT Tue Aug 6 2019/ Morning Area Forecast Discussion... SHORT TERM /Today through Wednesday/... Despite some drier air working in at the mid levels, still plenty of surface moisture available this morning. This has and will continue to manifest itself in the form of some low clouds and patchy fog, especially over portions of Central GA. Temperatures currently pretty seasonal but perhaps a degree or two cooler than this time last night. Models continue to trend drier for this afternoon with the mid levels with precipitable water for all of North GA falling to around 1.20 inches. In fact, models indicate locales in the mountains will fall to below and inch for this afternoon. This along with a lack of instability will all but shut down pop chances for today north of I20. Hi res does indicate some spotty activity across the metro and will keep isolated pops in but even this may be a stretch given aforementioned factors. Our respite from scattered pops will be short lived as we see a shortwave arrive in NW flow regime. Acting in tandem with this shortwave will be an increase in instability to around 2000 J/KG and a likewise increase in mid level moisture. Pops may be decidedly less diurnal in nature given timing of the mid level energy which looks to move across the northern tier counties during the morning. Deese LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Monday/... At the start of the long term period, the axis of the broad upper- level trough that has been affecting the southeastern CONUS will move east of the forecast area. A mid-level front accompanying the trough axis will push into the region preceding a dry airmass with PWATS around 1" that will move over most of north and portions of central Georgia Thursday afternoon. This will be a welcome relief from the regular summertime diurnal pattern, bringing stability to the region and reducing precip chances. The relief will be short-lived, however, as high level northwest flow will bring monsoonal airmass around the high-amplitude ridge in the Southwestern US. PWATS will quickly rebound to above 2" by Friday evening with moderate SBCAPE values between 1000-2000 J/kg. This extremely moist airmass will settle in over the Southeastern CONUS through the rest of the long term period. Through the long term, Highs in the 90s are expected with the arrival of the moist airmass towards the end of the week, generally 5 degrees above the climatological norm. Thiem && .AVIATION... 18Z Update... Mainly VFR cigs across the area with some leftover MVFR cigs mixed in with a cu field around 4-6kft. Highest chances for TSRA today will be at MCN/CSG with only VCSH after 19Z at metro taf sites. Prob30 has been included for Wed afternoon as pops are higher across the area, starting 17Z. Winds will be mainly on the west side through the taf cycle around 4-7kts, becoming more SW and light and variable overnight then more west Wednesday afternoon around 5-8kts. //ATL Confidence...18Z Update... Medium on tsra timing early afternoon & early fog. Medium to high on all other elements. Reaves && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 92 71 91 70 / 20 10 30 20 Atlanta 90 72 89 72 / 20 10 30 20 Blairsville 84 64 81 62 / 20 20 30 20 Cartersville 91 71 89 70 / 5 10 30 20 Columbus 91 73 92 73 / 30 30 40 20 Gainesville 89 70 88 70 / 20 10 30 20 Macon 92 72 93 72 / 30 20 40 20 Rome 92 71 90 70 / 10 20 30 20 Peachtree City 91 71 90 71 / 20 20 30 20 Vidalia 93 73 94 73 / 30 20 40 30 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Deese LONG TERM....Thiem AVIATION...Reaves