373 
FXUS62 KMLB 051930
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
330 PM EDT Mon Aug 5 2019

.DISCUSSION...

Currently/Tonight...
Early morning convection over the SW peninsula pushed out a mid/upr 
lvl debris cloud acrs central FL that has somewhat muted convection 
over the Space Coast and Orlando Metroplex. To the north and south, 
however, storms have been quite active. Sct convection firing along 
the west coast sea breeze will work its way east thru the remainder 
of the aftn, with the strongest activity expected east of a line 
from Cape Canaveral to Lake-O. Storms should burn out the available 
energy shortly aft sunset...will carry a pre-first pd in the ZFP 
with precip ending by 02Z. Min temps in the M70s will be 2-4F abv 
avg. 

Tue-Wed...
Stagnant wet WX pattern to continue through midweek as a deep lyr 
troffing pattern over the SE CONUS keeps the Bermuda Ridge axis 
pinned over the FL Straits. Interaction between these two features 
will maintain a steady SW flow thru the H100-H50 lyr that will 
concentrate diurnal convection on the east half of the peninsula.

A mid lvl dry slot over the north FL Peninsula will break down as it 
is pressed by deep moisture over the south half of FL working its 
way north, and deep moisture pooling within a weak frontal boundary 
over the FL/GA/AL border working its way South. Fcst PWats remain 
largely in the 2.00"-2.25" range, which lands in the 90th percentile 
for early Aug. Upstream, mid lvl vort fields over the GOMex are 
unimpressive, but H70 temps arnd 9C and H50 temps will yield lapse 
rates arnd 6.0C/KM. Aloft, upr lvl divergence will diminish as a 40-
50KT jet streak lifts away from central FL. 

Likely PoPs areawide (60-70pct) with highest coverage over the 
Space/Treasure Coasts and Lake-O region. Precip largely driven by 
diurnal heating with max activity id-late aftn...lingering thru mid 
m following max diurnal heating. Heavy will continue to be the 
primary concern given the precip coverage over the past several 
days. However, the as the slightly cooler air upstream filters into 
the state, storm potential will increase with strong wind gusts and 
fqnt ltg re-entering the WX picture. 

Max/Min temps at or slightly abv avg for early Aug with aftn 
readings in the L/M90s...mrng min temps in the M70s. 

Thu-Sun...(prev disc)  
Upper trough lifts out to the NE and allows ridge of high pressure 
over TX to nose in from the Gulf of Mexico toward FL. This should 
produce some warming aloft and a lowering of PoPs back toward 
climatology. Both ECMWF and GFS MOS guidance show Fri as the driest 
day with 30 percent rain chance, increasing to 40 percent Sat and 50 
percent Sunday. 

&&

.AVIATION...
Highest coverage of showers and storms expected to be along the 
coast from MLB-SUA again through the early evening hours. Carrying 
thunder in the TAFs through early evening and then VCSH until 01Z 
this evening for any lingering debris rain or showers. For the 
interior terminals, coverage is not forecast to be high enough to 
warrant TEMPO inclusion at this time, but some short-fused TEMPO 
groups may have to be added later on.  VFR conditions overnight 
through the remainder of the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight...Ridge axis across south FL will generate a light to gentle 
southerly breeze, S/SE thru mid evng, veering to W/SW around 
midnight as the land breeze dvlps. Seas generally 2-3FT except 1-2FT 
over the nearshore Treasure Coast waters. Thru mid evng, nmrs 
shras/tsras moving offshore south of Cape Canaveral...sct shra/tsras 
moving off Volusia Co.  

Tue-Fri...Little change thru the week as troffing over the SE keeps 
the Atlc ridge pinned over south FL/FL Straits. A gentle to moderate 
srly breeze will prevail, shifting from W/SW to S/SE each aftn and 
back again each night with the sea breeze/land breeze circulation. 
North of Sebastian Inlet, seas 2-3FT...up to 4FT in the Gulf Stream; 
South of Sebastian Inlet, seas 1-2FT...up to 3FT in the Gulf Stream.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The St Johns River near Astor is forecast to remain in Action Stage 
(but below Flood Stage) all this week with only small fluctuations 
around 2.1 ft. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  76  91  74  90 /  30  70  40  60 
MCO  76  92  75  91 /  20  60  30  60 
MLB  75  88  75  88 /  30  70  40  70 
VRB  75  88  75  88 /  30  70  40  70 
LEE  76  91  75  90 /  20  60  30  60 
SFB  76  92  74  91 /  20  60  30  60 
ORL  76  92  75  91 /  20  60  30  60 
FPR  75  87  74  88 /  30  70  40  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

Bragaw/Glitto/Combs