373 FXUS62 KMLB 051930 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 330 PM EDT Mon Aug 5 2019 .DISCUSSION... Currently/Tonight... Early morning convection over the SW peninsula pushed out a mid/upr lvl debris cloud acrs central FL that has somewhat muted convection over the Space Coast and Orlando Metroplex. To the north and south, however, storms have been quite active. Sct convection firing along the west coast sea breeze will work its way east thru the remainder of the aftn, with the strongest activity expected east of a line from Cape Canaveral to Lake-O. Storms should burn out the available energy shortly aft sunset...will carry a pre-first pd in the ZFP with precip ending by 02Z. Min temps in the M70s will be 2-4F abv avg. Tue-Wed... Stagnant wet WX pattern to continue through midweek as a deep lyr troffing pattern over the SE CONUS keeps the Bermuda Ridge axis pinned over the FL Straits. Interaction between these two features will maintain a steady SW flow thru the H100-H50 lyr that will concentrate diurnal convection on the east half of the peninsula. A mid lvl dry slot over the north FL Peninsula will break down as it is pressed by deep moisture over the south half of FL working its way north, and deep moisture pooling within a weak frontal boundary over the FL/GA/AL border working its way South. Fcst PWats remain largely in the 2.00"-2.25" range, which lands in the 90th percentile for early Aug. Upstream, mid lvl vort fields over the GOMex are unimpressive, but H70 temps arnd 9C and H50 temps will yield lapse rates arnd 6.0C/KM. Aloft, upr lvl divergence will diminish as a 40- 50KT jet streak lifts away from central FL. Likely PoPs areawide (60-70pct) with highest coverage over the Space/Treasure Coasts and Lake-O region. Precip largely driven by diurnal heating with max activity id-late aftn...lingering thru mid m following max diurnal heating. Heavy will continue to be the primary concern given the precip coverage over the past several days. However, the as the slightly cooler air upstream filters into the state, storm potential will increase with strong wind gusts and fqnt ltg re-entering the WX picture. Max/Min temps at or slightly abv avg for early Aug with aftn readings in the L/M90s...mrng min temps in the M70s. Thu-Sun...(prev disc) Upper trough lifts out to the NE and allows ridge of high pressure over TX to nose in from the Gulf of Mexico toward FL. This should produce some warming aloft and a lowering of PoPs back toward climatology. Both ECMWF and GFS MOS guidance show Fri as the driest day with 30 percent rain chance, increasing to 40 percent Sat and 50 percent Sunday. && .AVIATION... Highest coverage of showers and storms expected to be along the coast from MLB-SUA again through the early evening hours. Carrying thunder in the TAFs through early evening and then VCSH until 01Z this evening for any lingering debris rain or showers. For the interior terminals, coverage is not forecast to be high enough to warrant TEMPO inclusion at this time, but some short-fused TEMPO groups may have to be added later on. VFR conditions overnight through the remainder of the TAF period. && .MARINE... Tonight...Ridge axis across south FL will generate a light to gentle southerly breeze, S/SE thru mid evng, veering to W/SW around midnight as the land breeze dvlps. Seas generally 2-3FT except 1-2FT over the nearshore Treasure Coast waters. Thru mid evng, nmrs shras/tsras moving offshore south of Cape Canaveral...sct shra/tsras moving off Volusia Co. Tue-Fri...Little change thru the week as troffing over the SE keeps the Atlc ridge pinned over south FL/FL Straits. A gentle to moderate srly breeze will prevail, shifting from W/SW to S/SE each aftn and back again each night with the sea breeze/land breeze circulation. North of Sebastian Inlet, seas 2-3FT...up to 4FT in the Gulf Stream; South of Sebastian Inlet, seas 1-2FT...up to 3FT in the Gulf Stream. && .HYDROLOGY... The St Johns River near Astor is forecast to remain in Action Stage (but below Flood Stage) all this week with only small fluctuations around 2.1 ft. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 76 91 74 90 / 30 70 40 60 MCO 76 92 75 91 / 20 60 30 60 MLB 75 88 75 88 / 30 70 40 70 VRB 75 88 75 88 / 30 70 40 70 LEE 76 91 75 90 / 20 60 30 60 SFB 76 92 74 91 / 20 60 30 60 ORL 76 92 75 91 / 20 60 30 60 FPR 75 87 74 88 / 30 70 40 70 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ Bragaw/Glitto/Combs