296 
FXUS63 KILX 051748
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1248 PM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 326 AM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019

Mostly sunny and warm weather will be on tap across central
Illinois this afternoon with highs topping out around 90 degrees.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop late tonight 
into Tuesday as a cold front pushes through the area.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1103 AM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019

Skies will remain mostly sunny this afternoon with west to
southwest winds less than 10 mph. Temperatures have reached into
the mid 80s so temps reaching to near 90 still seem reasonable.
Current forecast has a good handle the rest of the afternoon and
looking at some of the new model data coming, see no reason to
update the forecast for tonight. So, no update planned at this
time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019

Another warm summer day is expected as ample sunshine and
increasing southwesterly flow push afternoon high temperatures
into the upper 80s to around 90 degrees. Meanwhile, a cold front
dropping out of the Northern Plains will trigger thunderstorms
across Minnesota/Iowa this afternoon and evening...with some of
this activity potentially reaching the NW KILX CWA around
Galesburg by late evening. Most model guidance suggests the
convection will become scattered as daytime instability wanes and 
it encounters the drier boundary layer conditions across central 
Illinois. As a result, have confined PoPs to the chance category
along/northwest of a Jacksonville to Champaign line overnight.
Lows will remain in the upper 60s to around 70. 

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue into Tuesday as
the cold front pushes through Illinois. While not all locations
will see measurable rainfall, a few spots will experience locally
heavy downpours as precipitable water values increase to around 
1.75 ahead of the boundary. Once the front passes, rain chances 
will quickly come to an end from west to east Tuesday evening.

After that, northwesterly upper flow will dominate across the
Midwest through next weekend...ensuring near to slightly below
normal temperatures. In addition, a secondary weak cold front will
quickly pass through central Illinois...bringing low chance PoPs
Thursday into Friday. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019

VFR conditions will continue remainder of the afternoon and into
the evening hours. CU over the area will dissipate around 00z.
Precip will not arrive until after 06z and looking at VCTS for PIA
around 09z, SPI & BMI around 10z. DEC and CMI precip will be
around 11z but think precip at this point will just be VCSH. Will
keep VC precip into morning hours for all sites, though may end
sooner. So ending precip at PIA around 15z. SPI/BMI/DEC/CMI could
see lingering showers til 18z, so keeping VCSH at all 4 of those
sites. As front and precip move into the area, cloud heights will
decrease and become broken at 3.5kft or 4kft at all sites. Winds
will be light out of the southwest this afternoon and become much
lighter tonight. PIA/SPI/BMI will see winds become westerly 
tomorrow morning around 15z. DEC and CMI will not see wind shift
until after 18z tomorrow.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Auten
SYNOPSIS...Auten
SHORT TERM...Barnes 
LONG TERM...Barnes 
AVIATION...Auten