296 FXUS63 KILX 051748 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1248 PM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 326 AM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019 Mostly sunny and warm weather will be on tap across central Illinois this afternoon with highs topping out around 90 degrees. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop late tonight into Tuesday as a cold front pushes through the area. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1103 AM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019 Skies will remain mostly sunny this afternoon with west to southwest winds less than 10 mph. Temperatures have reached into the mid 80s so temps reaching to near 90 still seem reasonable. Current forecast has a good handle the rest of the afternoon and looking at some of the new model data coming, see no reason to update the forecast for tonight. So, no update planned at this time. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019 Another warm summer day is expected as ample sunshine and increasing southwesterly flow push afternoon high temperatures into the upper 80s to around 90 degrees. Meanwhile, a cold front dropping out of the Northern Plains will trigger thunderstorms across Minnesota/Iowa this afternoon and evening...with some of this activity potentially reaching the NW KILX CWA around Galesburg by late evening. Most model guidance suggests the convection will become scattered as daytime instability wanes and it encounters the drier boundary layer conditions across central Illinois. As a result, have confined PoPs to the chance category along/northwest of a Jacksonville to Champaign line overnight. Lows will remain in the upper 60s to around 70. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019 Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue into Tuesday as the cold front pushes through Illinois. While not all locations will see measurable rainfall, a few spots will experience locally heavy downpours as precipitable water values increase to around 1.75 ahead of the boundary. Once the front passes, rain chances will quickly come to an end from west to east Tuesday evening. After that, northwesterly upper flow will dominate across the Midwest through next weekend...ensuring near to slightly below normal temperatures. In addition, a secondary weak cold front will quickly pass through central Illinois...bringing low chance PoPs Thursday into Friday. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon) Issued at 1248 PM CDT Mon Aug 5 2019 VFR conditions will continue remainder of the afternoon and into the evening hours. CU over the area will dissipate around 00z. Precip will not arrive until after 06z and looking at VCTS for PIA around 09z, SPI & BMI around 10z. DEC and CMI precip will be around 11z but think precip at this point will just be VCSH. Will keep VC precip into morning hours for all sites, though may end sooner. So ending precip at PIA around 15z. SPI/BMI/DEC/CMI could see lingering showers til 18z, so keeping VCSH at all 4 of those sites. As front and precip move into the area, cloud heights will decrease and become broken at 3.5kft or 4kft at all sites. Winds will be light out of the southwest this afternoon and become much lighter tonight. PIA/SPI/BMI will see winds become westerly tomorrow morning around 15z. DEC and CMI will not see wind shift until after 18z tomorrow. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Auten SYNOPSIS...Auten SHORT TERM...Barnes LONG TERM...Barnes AVIATION...Auten