822 
FXUS61 KCLE 112328
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
728 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2019

...00z Aviation Forecast Update...

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will finish crossing the region this evening. High
pressure will build across the area for Friday and the first
part of Saturday. A cold front will sink southward Saturday
evening and be followed by high pressure for early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Quiet weather is expected for the rest of the evening. The
strong to severe storms have moved off to the east and skies are
clearing from west to east across the area as drier air moves
in. We updated the sky forecast and latest trends in the evening
update.

Previous discussion...
Showers and thunderstorms will continue for a few more hours 
east of I-71 and inland of the lake. Wind,heavy rain, and 
lightning have been the threats with the storms. Position of the
cold front is nears I-71 with fair conditions in its wake for 
the rest of the evening. Skies will clear, but then expecting 
fill back in overnight to yield partly to mostly cloudy skies 
before morning. High pressure will build across the area for 
Friday. The arrival of drier air will help clear the skies for 
the afternoon. Temperatures tonight will still be in the 60s, 
but the north wind will keep highs Friday in the upper 70s/lower
80s. Cooler and more comfortable Friday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The short term starts out Saturday with models showing dry air 
across the region but a cold front approaching from the 
northwest. The parent low will be well northeast in Quebec with 
models showing a tail of moisture although there will be a 
decent amount of CAPE associated with the boundary. By 
afternoon, with the moisture and CAPE move into the area just 
ahead of the front. Will have a slight chance pops across 
northern counties for the afternoon and then up to chance pops 
for the evening. Sunday high pressure and dry stable air build 
in. Monday the tropical system moves north into the lower Ohio 
Valley. Kept the day dry but moisture will be fast approaching.
Highs Saturday and Monday in the mid 80s. Highs Sunday lower
80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Tuesday through Wednesday believe the tropical remnants will 
bring precip to the general area. Guidance pops are in the high
chance to likely range but for now have held pops to the chance
category given uncertainty with timing and exact path. Thursday
have dropped ops to slight chance as an upper ridge begins to
build into the area and the tropical remnants move east. Highs
mainly in the upper 80s Tuesday through Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
VFR conditions are expected for the rest of the evening,
tonight, and tomorrow as slightly drier air moves in. Few to
scattered clouds around 8K to 10K may be possible but otherwise
don't see anything impactful for aviation. Winds will be shift
to northwest 5 to 10 knots this evening through Friday evening.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible in scattered thunderstorms Saturday 
evening.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front will finish crossing the east end of the lake this
evening with high pressure in its wake to end the week. The
north flow will be between 10 and 15 knots and will have a
period of 2 to 3 footers tonight and Friday. The high shifts
east Friday night and winds respond by backing to the southwest.
A weak front will sink south across the lake Saturday evening
with an uptick in wind to 10 to 15 knots. High pressure follows
for Sunday shifting east of the lake through Tuesday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Oudeman
NEAR TERM...Oudeman
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...Griffin
MARINE...TK