822 FXUS61 KCLE 112328 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 728 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2019 ...00z Aviation Forecast Update... .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will finish crossing the region this evening. High pressure will build across the area for Friday and the first part of Saturday. A cold front will sink southward Saturday evening and be followed by high pressure for early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Quiet weather is expected for the rest of the evening. The strong to severe storms have moved off to the east and skies are clearing from west to east across the area as drier air moves in. We updated the sky forecast and latest trends in the evening update. Previous discussion... Showers and thunderstorms will continue for a few more hours east of I-71 and inland of the lake. Wind,heavy rain, and lightning have been the threats with the storms. Position of the cold front is nears I-71 with fair conditions in its wake for the rest of the evening. Skies will clear, but then expecting fill back in overnight to yield partly to mostly cloudy skies before morning. High pressure will build across the area for Friday. The arrival of drier air will help clear the skies for the afternoon. Temperatures tonight will still be in the 60s, but the north wind will keep highs Friday in the upper 70s/lower 80s. Cooler and more comfortable Friday night. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... The short term starts out Saturday with models showing dry air across the region but a cold front approaching from the northwest. The parent low will be well northeast in Quebec with models showing a tail of moisture although there will be a decent amount of CAPE associated with the boundary. By afternoon, with the moisture and CAPE move into the area just ahead of the front. Will have a slight chance pops across northern counties for the afternoon and then up to chance pops for the evening. Sunday high pressure and dry stable air build in. Monday the tropical system moves north into the lower Ohio Valley. Kept the day dry but moisture will be fast approaching. Highs Saturday and Monday in the mid 80s. Highs Sunday lower 80s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Tuesday through Wednesday believe the tropical remnants will bring precip to the general area. Guidance pops are in the high chance to likely range but for now have held pops to the chance category given uncertainty with timing and exact path. Thursday have dropped ops to slight chance as an upper ridge begins to build into the area and the tropical remnants move east. Highs mainly in the upper 80s Tuesday through Thursday. && .AVIATION /00Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/... VFR conditions are expected for the rest of the evening, tonight, and tomorrow as slightly drier air moves in. Few to scattered clouds around 8K to 10K may be possible but otherwise don't see anything impactful for aviation. Winds will be shift to northwest 5 to 10 knots this evening through Friday evening. OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible in scattered thunderstorms Saturday evening. && .MARINE... A cold front will finish crossing the east end of the lake this evening with high pressure in its wake to end the week. The north flow will be between 10 and 15 knots and will have a period of 2 to 3 footers tonight and Friday. The high shifts east Friday night and winds respond by backing to the southwest. A weak front will sink south across the lake Saturday evening with an uptick in wind to 10 to 15 knots. High pressure follows for Sunday shifting east of the lake through Tuesday. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Oudeman NEAR TERM...Oudeman SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...TK AVIATION...Griffin MARINE...TK