601 
FXUS64 KMOB 110334 AAB
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1034 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2019

.DISCUSSION...See updated information for land areas below.

&&

.UPDATE...The tropical disturbance over the Gulf of Mexico was 
centered about 175 miles south of Dauphin Island. Broad
circulationassociated with this system is bringing east to west 
moving isolated showers and thunderstorms across the forecast 
area. Made a slightly downward adjustment to the precipitation 
chances overnight tonight due to loss of surface heating, lower 
instability, and radar trend. Remaining weather elements from 
previous forecast are trending nicely at this time. Updated 
products sent. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 650 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2019/ 

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
00Z issuance...Occasional isolated thunderstorms are forecast
north and west of the Mobile metro area through mid evening, so 
kept vicinity thunderstorms in for MOB aund BFM. Occasional 
showers are then expected across the entire north central gulf 
coast region from 11.06z through 11.15z. Added vicinity 
thunderstorms for all TAF sites after 11.15z as Potential Tropical
Cyclone Two over the gulf continues to strengthen. Mainly 
easterly winds at 5 to 10 knots will occur overnight, then turn to
the southeast and increasing to near 15 knots on Thursday, with 
gusts to around 20 knots. /22

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 437 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2019/ 

NEAR TERM /Now Through Thursday/...An organizing tropical system 
centered about 140 miles south of Pensacola at the beginning of 
the forecast will bring increasing bands of rain beginning tonight
into Thursday as the area comes under increasing southerly flow. 
The system is expected to become a tropical storm by Thursday 
afternoon as the center begins to pass well south of Houma, La. 
For the first 24hrs of the forecast, best rain chances will be 
closer to the coast, gradually spreading northwestward Thursday as
the southerly flow increases as the system further develops. A 
few storms may become strong to marginally severe, especially 
over areas that tap into good instability this afternoon into this
evening closer to the coast and again Thursday for those bands 
that move into areas that see good daytime heating. 16/SAM

SHORT TERM /Thursday night Through Saturday night/...The focus 
through the short term period will continue to be on 92L, and 
Potential Tropical Cyclone Advisories were initiated at 10 AM 
this morning. 92L is expected to become sufficiently organized to 
be a tropical storm by late Thursday afternoon or early Thursday 
evening, and then likely becoming a category 1 hurricane by the 
end of the day on Friday, then making a potential landfall along 
the western Louisiana coast sometime on Saturday. Hurricane and 
Tropical Storm Watches are now in effect to our west, primarily 
along the Louisiana coastline. With the expected motion and 
intensity trend, most of the more significant impacts associated 
with what will be Hurricane Barry should be to the west of our 
area, but that doesn't mean that we wont see any impacts. The 
primary impacts expected in our area will be heavy rainfall and 
associated flooding threat (especially over coastal and western 
portions of our forecast area), and coastal concerns- ie, high 
risk of rip currents, high surf and some minor coastal flooding in
the normally flood prone areas. Some of the main concerns for our
area are listed below., 

Rainfall/Flooding Threat...Precipitable Water (PWAT) is forecast to 
be in the 2.00 to 2.25 inch range over our forecast area through 
most of the short term period, so a very moist airmass is already in 
place and will persist through the period. Northeast to east low to 
mid level flow over our area today will be increasing and 
progressively become more southerly through Saturday night as Barry 
moves further to the west of our area, bringing PWAT values up to 
around 2.50 inches over western areas by 12z Sunday. This increasing 
moisture, combined with increased lift on the east side of Barry 
will result in a better coverage of precipitation over our area as
we progress through the short term period. We expect bands of 
showers and thunderstorms to be ongoing (especially over coastal 
areas) at the beginning of the short term period, and then to 
increase in coverage and spread inland across the area Friday and 
Saturday. We will keep likely to categorical POPs through most of 
the period. There will be at least a marginal or slight threat of 
excessive rainfall and associated flooding across our area going 
into the latter part of the week, especially across southern and 
western parts of the region where we are currently advertising an 
Elevated Flood Threat. In the Elevated threat area 5 to 7 inches 
of rainfall is possible, with locally higher amounts. Lesser but 
still significant rainfall amounts are expected further to the 
north and east across our area. We will be issuing a Flash Flood 
Watch with this afternoons forecast package (valid from 18z 
Thursday through 18z Sunday) for our interior southeast MS 
counties, part of extreme southwest AL and some of the extreme 
western FL panhandle as well.

Coastal Threat...Along with our continuing High rip current risk, we 
will also be issuing a High Surf Advisory (beginning 12Z Thursday 
through 18Z Sunday) and a Coastal Flood Watch (beginning at 06Z 
Friday through 18Z Sunday) with this afternoons forecast package. 
Surf heights begin to increase on Thursday as winds become more 
southerly and begin to increase across the area and associated swell 
begins to propagate toward the coastline. We will also be moving 
toward a spring tidal cycle with higher daily tidal ranges Friday, 
Saturday, and Sunday. With the continued moderate to occasionally 
strong southerly onshore flow, we expect that tide levels will be 
running 1 to 3 feet predicted levels, and some minor coastal 
flooding will be possible. This will be more likely around the 
Mobile Bay region, but water levels will be slightly above normal 
all the way east along the coast of the western Florida panhandle. 
Minor coastal flooding will be most likely around the times of 
astronomical high tides (which will generally be in the 7 AM to 10 
AM timeframe Friday through Sunday. We will continue to monitor
this potential and update as needed. 

Tornado Threat...With Barry expected to move inland well to the west 
of our area, we will be in the more favorable sector of the
tropical cyclone for a few possibly tornadic storms by Thursday 
afternoon. This will be a threat that we will have to monitor if 
outer rainbands set up and move generally north across our area by
Thursday afternoon through Thursday night. 12/DS

LONG TERM /Sunday Through Wednesday/...Will still have the
Watches and Advisories noted above in the short term period will 
still be ongoing at the beginning of the long term period. A deeply 
moist airmass remains entrenched across our region at least through 
Sunday, and will continue with high POPs and possible heavy rainfall 
and potential flash flooding, especially over coastal counties and 
interior southeast MS. It currently appears that we will trend more 
to our typical isolated to scattered summer time scattered convective
coverage by early next week. The coastal hazards mentioned in the
short term will also possibly be continuing into Sunday, but improving
as we go into the early and mid part of next week. 12/DS

MARINE...An organizing tropical system centered about 140 miles 
south of Pensacola will continue to move east through the rest of 
the week. Area waters will come under increasing southerly flow, 
with Small Craft level winds beginning later tonight over 
unprotected waters. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the
two Alabama Gulf marine zones (for at least frequent tropical 
storm force wind gusts), with Small Craft Advisories elsewhere. 
Building seas are expected through early Saturday (reaching near 
14 feet over extreme southwestern marine zones by late Friday 
night and early Saturday) before winds and seas begin to ease 
Sunday into Monday. 16/SAM 

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Flash Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through Sunday 
     afternoon for ALZ052-261>266.

     High Rip Current Risk from 7 AM CDT Thursday through Sunday 
     afternoon for ALZ265-266.

     High Surf Advisory from 7 AM Thursday to 1 PM CDT Sunday for 
     ALZ265-266.

     Coastal Flood Watch from late Thursday night through Sunday 
     afternoon for ALZ263>266.

FL...Flash Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through Sunday 
     afternoon for FLZ201>204.

     High Rip Current Risk from 7 AM CDT Thursday through Sunday 
     afternoon for FLZ202-204-206.

     High Surf Advisory from 7 AM Thursday to 1 PM CDT Sunday for 
     FLZ202-204-206.

     Coastal Flood Watch from late Thursday night through Sunday 
     afternoon for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...Flash Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through Sunday 
     afternoon for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

GM...Tropical Storm Watch for GMZ650-670. 

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ631-632-655-
     675.

&&

$$

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