601 FXUS64 KMOB 110334 AAB AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Mobile AL 1034 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2019 .DISCUSSION...See updated information for land areas below. && .UPDATE...The tropical disturbance over the Gulf of Mexico was centered about 175 miles south of Dauphin Island. Broad circulationassociated with this system is bringing east to west moving isolated showers and thunderstorms across the forecast area. Made a slightly downward adjustment to the precipitation chances overnight tonight due to loss of surface heating, lower instability, and radar trend. Remaining weather elements from previous forecast are trending nicely at this time. Updated products sent. /22 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 650 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2019/ DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below. AVIATION... 00Z issuance...Occasional isolated thunderstorms are forecast north and west of the Mobile metro area through mid evening, so kept vicinity thunderstorms in for MOB aund BFM. Occasional showers are then expected across the entire north central gulf coast region from 11.06z through 11.15z. Added vicinity thunderstorms for all TAF sites after 11.15z as Potential Tropical Cyclone Two over the gulf continues to strengthen. Mainly easterly winds at 5 to 10 knots will occur overnight, then turn to the southeast and increasing to near 15 knots on Thursday, with gusts to around 20 knots. /22 PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 437 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2019/ NEAR TERM /Now Through Thursday/...An organizing tropical system centered about 140 miles south of Pensacola at the beginning of the forecast will bring increasing bands of rain beginning tonight into Thursday as the area comes under increasing southerly flow. The system is expected to become a tropical storm by Thursday afternoon as the center begins to pass well south of Houma, La. For the first 24hrs of the forecast, best rain chances will be closer to the coast, gradually spreading northwestward Thursday as the southerly flow increases as the system further develops. A few storms may become strong to marginally severe, especially over areas that tap into good instability this afternoon into this evening closer to the coast and again Thursday for those bands that move into areas that see good daytime heating. 16/SAM SHORT TERM /Thursday night Through Saturday night/...The focus through the short term period will continue to be on 92L, and Potential Tropical Cyclone Advisories were initiated at 10 AM this morning. 92L is expected to become sufficiently organized to be a tropical storm by late Thursday afternoon or early Thursday evening, and then likely becoming a category 1 hurricane by the end of the day on Friday, then making a potential landfall along the western Louisiana coast sometime on Saturday. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches are now in effect to our west, primarily along the Louisiana coastline. With the expected motion and intensity trend, most of the more significant impacts associated with what will be Hurricane Barry should be to the west of our area, but that doesn't mean that we wont see any impacts. The primary impacts expected in our area will be heavy rainfall and associated flooding threat (especially over coastal and western portions of our forecast area), and coastal concerns- ie, high risk of rip currents, high surf and some minor coastal flooding in the normally flood prone areas. Some of the main concerns for our area are listed below., Rainfall/Flooding Threat...Precipitable Water (PWAT) is forecast to be in the 2.00 to 2.25 inch range over our forecast area through most of the short term period, so a very moist airmass is already in place and will persist through the period. Northeast to east low to mid level flow over our area today will be increasing and progressively become more southerly through Saturday night as Barry moves further to the west of our area, bringing PWAT values up to around 2.50 inches over western areas by 12z Sunday. This increasing moisture, combined with increased lift on the east side of Barry will result in a better coverage of precipitation over our area as we progress through the short term period. We expect bands of showers and thunderstorms to be ongoing (especially over coastal areas) at the beginning of the short term period, and then to increase in coverage and spread inland across the area Friday and Saturday. We will keep likely to categorical POPs through most of the period. There will be at least a marginal or slight threat of excessive rainfall and associated flooding across our area going into the latter part of the week, especially across southern and western parts of the region where we are currently advertising an Elevated Flood Threat. In the Elevated threat area 5 to 7 inches of rainfall is possible, with locally higher amounts. Lesser but still significant rainfall amounts are expected further to the north and east across our area. We will be issuing a Flash Flood Watch with this afternoons forecast package (valid from 18z Thursday through 18z Sunday) for our interior southeast MS counties, part of extreme southwest AL and some of the extreme western FL panhandle as well. Coastal Threat...Along with our continuing High rip current risk, we will also be issuing a High Surf Advisory (beginning 12Z Thursday through 18Z Sunday) and a Coastal Flood Watch (beginning at 06Z Friday through 18Z Sunday) with this afternoons forecast package. Surf heights begin to increase on Thursday as winds become more southerly and begin to increase across the area and associated swell begins to propagate toward the coastline. We will also be moving toward a spring tidal cycle with higher daily tidal ranges Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. With the continued moderate to occasionally strong southerly onshore flow, we expect that tide levels will be running 1 to 3 feet predicted levels, and some minor coastal flooding will be possible. This will be more likely around the Mobile Bay region, but water levels will be slightly above normal all the way east along the coast of the western Florida panhandle. Minor coastal flooding will be most likely around the times of astronomical high tides (which will generally be in the 7 AM to 10 AM timeframe Friday through Sunday. We will continue to monitor this potential and update as needed. Tornado Threat...With Barry expected to move inland well to the west of our area, we will be in the more favorable sector of the tropical cyclone for a few possibly tornadic storms by Thursday afternoon. This will be a threat that we will have to monitor if outer rainbands set up and move generally north across our area by Thursday afternoon through Thursday night. 12/DS LONG TERM /Sunday Through Wednesday/...Will still have the Watches and Advisories noted above in the short term period will still be ongoing at the beginning of the long term period. A deeply moist airmass remains entrenched across our region at least through Sunday, and will continue with high POPs and possible heavy rainfall and potential flash flooding, especially over coastal counties and interior southeast MS. It currently appears that we will trend more to our typical isolated to scattered summer time scattered convective coverage by early next week. The coastal hazards mentioned in the short term will also possibly be continuing into Sunday, but improving as we go into the early and mid part of next week. 12/DS MARINE...An organizing tropical system centered about 140 miles south of Pensacola will continue to move east through the rest of the week. Area waters will come under increasing southerly flow, with Small Craft level winds beginning later tonight over unprotected waters. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the two Alabama Gulf marine zones (for at least frequent tropical storm force wind gusts), with Small Craft Advisories elsewhere. Building seas are expected through early Saturday (reaching near 14 feet over extreme southwestern marine zones by late Friday night and early Saturday) before winds and seas begin to ease Sunday into Monday. 16/SAM && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Flash Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through Sunday afternoon for ALZ052-261>266. High Rip Current Risk from 7 AM CDT Thursday through Sunday afternoon for ALZ265-266. High Surf Advisory from 7 AM Thursday to 1 PM CDT Sunday for ALZ265-266. Coastal Flood Watch from late Thursday night through Sunday afternoon for ALZ263>266. FL...Flash Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through Sunday afternoon for FLZ201>204. High Rip Current Risk from 7 AM CDT Thursday through Sunday afternoon for FLZ202-204-206. High Surf Advisory from 7 AM Thursday to 1 PM CDT Sunday for FLZ202-204-206. Coastal Flood Watch from late Thursday night through Sunday afternoon for FLZ202-204-206. MS...Flash Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through Sunday afternoon for MSZ067-075-076-078-079. GM...Tropical Storm Watch for GMZ650-670. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ631-632-655- 675. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: http://weather.gov/mob