941 
FXUS61 KRLX 081038
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
638 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front exits east of the Appalachians early Monday
morning. Surface high pressure takes control for a hot and 
muggy conditions through midweek. Another system by Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 330 AM Monday...

A cold front will exit east of the Appalachians this morning.
All showers and storms decayed overnight. A high pressure builds
today across the entire area. Hot, muggy and weak flow will
continue through tonight. An isolated afternoon shower or storm
can not be ruled out mainly along the eastern mountains.  

The combination of warm temperatures and abundant low level
moisture will result uncomfortable for many with heat indexes
reaching the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 215 AM Monday...

Overall, much quieter weather for at least the first part of the
short term period. High pressure in control Tuesday and
Wednesday, with drier weather, although isold showers and storms
cannot be completely ruled out, particularly during peak heating
hours. Otherwise, increasing heat and humidity once again by mid
week, with heat indices creeping back into the mid to upper 90s
once again. Upper trough and surface cold front will sweep
through the area on Thursday, with increased chances for showers
and storms. Although too early to be sure, some of the storms on
Thursday could be strong.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 220 AM Monday...

Drier and less humid air to start the period behind the
departing system Thursday night. By late in the weekend/early
next week, showers and thunderstorm chances will increase once
again across the area, particularly if tropical system remnants
make their way towards the area.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 635 AM Monday...

Cold front exits east of the Appalachians this morning.
Satellite images indicate plenty of IFR low stratus affecting
CRW, HTS, CKB, EKN and BKW. Expect improvements to MVFR to VFR
by 14-15Z, to remain VFR for the rest of the period. MVFR
ceilings at PKB is expected to last through 15-16Z today. 

A high pressure will build over the area today for widespread
VFR conditions under some clouds. Expect another hot and humid
day. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...
     
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. 

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None. 

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EDT 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    M    L    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    L    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    M    H    H    H    H    L    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    L    H    H    M    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
IFR possible in fog and stratus Tuesday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...ARJ