941 FXUS61 KRLX 081038 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 638 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front exits east of the Appalachians early Monday morning. Surface high pressure takes control for a hot and muggy conditions through midweek. Another system by Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 330 AM Monday... A cold front will exit east of the Appalachians this morning. All showers and storms decayed overnight. A high pressure builds today across the entire area. Hot, muggy and weak flow will continue through tonight. An isolated afternoon shower or storm can not be ruled out mainly along the eastern mountains. The combination of warm temperatures and abundant low level moisture will result uncomfortable for many with heat indexes reaching the mid to upper 80s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 215 AM Monday... Overall, much quieter weather for at least the first part of the short term period. High pressure in control Tuesday and Wednesday, with drier weather, although isold showers and storms cannot be completely ruled out, particularly during peak heating hours. Otherwise, increasing heat and humidity once again by mid week, with heat indices creeping back into the mid to upper 90s once again. Upper trough and surface cold front will sweep through the area on Thursday, with increased chances for showers and storms. Although too early to be sure, some of the storms on Thursday could be strong. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 220 AM Monday... Drier and less humid air to start the period behind the departing system Thursday night. By late in the weekend/early next week, showers and thunderstorm chances will increase once again across the area, particularly if tropical system remnants make their way towards the area. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 635 AM Monday... Cold front exits east of the Appalachians this morning. Satellite images indicate plenty of IFR low stratus affecting CRW, HTS, CKB, EKN and BKW. Expect improvements to MVFR to VFR by 14-15Z, to remain VFR for the rest of the period. MVFR ceilings at PKB is expected to last through 15-16Z today. A high pressure will build over the area today for widespread VFR conditions under some clouds. Expect another hot and humid day. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 CRW CONSISTENCY L M L H H H M M H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY M L L H H M M M H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M M H L H M H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M M M L M H H H H L H M PKB CONSISTENCY L L L L H H M M H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M M H H L H H M H H H H AFTER 12Z TUESDAY... IFR possible in fog and stratus Tuesday morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/SL NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...ARJ