035 
FXUS63 KMPX 041151
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
651 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 415 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2019

A somewhat frustrating period to forecast precip chances will unfold 
during the short term.  We'll remain within the right entrance 
region of an upper jet streak to our north/northeast the whole 
time, with a weak front slowly dropping southeast across the area 
through Friday.  All of this weak background lift will happen within 
a moist, unstable, and weakly capped environment, so lots of 
scattered storms are expected, though with little in the way of 
organization.

Thunderstorms have been slowly moving across SoDak all night and 
have reached western MN early this morning. However, RAP 
mesoanalysis at h85 has shown a pocket of drier air and reduced 
instability over western MN and based on the diminishing trend we've 
been seen of convective intensity and warming of the cloud tops on 
IR, there is likely some validity to this drier air. As a result 
expect what the CAMs have been showing most of the night in that 
this activity will rapidly fall apart over western MN early this 
morning. We'll see a brief lull in activity through late morning as 
instability builds, but once it does, the combination of the weak 
front in western/central MN and a mid level impulse left over from 
activity over SoDak will result scattered thunderstorms developing 
early this afternoon. Like yesterday, eventual placement/movement of 
storms will be driven by the movement of outflow boundaries, which 
is hard to predict this far out. It's hard to really say anyone is 
in the clear from seeing storms today, so we eventually have 
widespread scattered thunderstorm wording. Agree with what the SPC 
has in their Day 1 convective outlook with a marginal risk of severe 
weather in the area of the boundary, which covers pretty much our 
whole area. Shear is weak, so we're once again looking at an 
isolated wind threat being our main severe threat.

For Thursday night and Friday, the front just slowly shifts south 
and area of greatest thunderstorm coverage will do the same. The one 
thing we do see on Friday is the jet to our north strengthens, which 
should promote slightly better lift in its right entrance region 
down here, so we continue to run with some likely PoPs from south 
central MN up toward central WI along the boundary. Friday will be 
similar to today setup wise, so we're looking for more pulse type 
thunderstorms with little organization. The Day 2 severe outlook was 
pulled northwest from when it was the Day 3 outlook, but with the 
front still looking to be hung up over southern MN during the 
afternoon, would not be surprised if this marginal risk needs to be 
pulled further to the northwest with the mid day update.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 415 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2019

Not many changes in the long term, with quasi-zonal flow remaining 
in place, with severe low amplitude waves moving across the northern 
CONUS. This will result in near normal temperatures, with plenty of 
chances for precipitation. With that said, we are seeing one period 
with more a organized wave and better chances for precip Monday 
night through Tuesday night.

Saturday, we continue to see the ECMWF dewpoints near 70 across 
southern MN, with a wave working across in the zonal flow. More 
models are starting to hint at this possibility, so did increase 
PoPs into the chance category on Saturday across the south. Sunday 
looks mainly dry, by we'll see southerly winds and moisture return 
show up in western MN by the afternoon, so a chance of a 
thunderstorm can not be ruled out in western MN Sunday.

Next week, the main change seen in guidance was for a slower arrival 
for precip, pushing things out more to Tuesday/Tuesday night for us 
having our best chances.  This wave looks similar to what we're 
dealing with now, so probably looking at scattered activity with the 
severe threat being low. 

For temperatures, the airmass next week looks slightly cooler than 
what we have now, with highs running more low to mid 80s during the 
extended and opposed to mid to upper 80s. Northeast winds over the 
weekend, will bring a brief break from the higher humidity air and 
will allow for a couple of cooler mornings Saturday and Sunday, but 
dewpoints will likely run back up to around 70 with the front coming 
through next week, so although our highs will be near normal next 
week, lows will be running above normal with the moist airmass in 
place.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 651 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2019

Once again, we are expecting scattered thunderstorms this
afternoon that should fire shortly after 17z. Given the scattered
nature of the convection, continued using VCTSs to cover the
threat. Tonight looks to be fairly quiet, with the next round of
shra/tsra moving into southwest MN Fri morning. Will have VFR
conditions outside of TSRA today and tonight, there will be the
potential for patchy br/fg once again depending on how much cloud
cover we have through the night. Pressure gradient will remain
baggy, so light and variable winds will continue that will be
heavily influenced by outflow boundaries.

KMSP...Main change was to move up thunder threat as upper impulse
generated by TSRA over SoDak last night will lead to the potential
for scattered TSRA development in the TC metro around 18z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Fri...VFR Chc MVFR/tsra. Wind NE 5 kt. 
Sat...VFR. Wind NE 5 kt.
Sun...VFR. Wind SE 5 kt. 

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...MPG