035 FXUS63 KMPX 041151 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 651 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2019 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday) Issued at 415 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2019 A somewhat frustrating period to forecast precip chances will unfold during the short term. We'll remain within the right entrance region of an upper jet streak to our north/northeast the whole time, with a weak front slowly dropping southeast across the area through Friday. All of this weak background lift will happen within a moist, unstable, and weakly capped environment, so lots of scattered storms are expected, though with little in the way of organization. Thunderstorms have been slowly moving across SoDak all night and have reached western MN early this morning. However, RAP mesoanalysis at h85 has shown a pocket of drier air and reduced instability over western MN and based on the diminishing trend we've been seen of convective intensity and warming of the cloud tops on IR, there is likely some validity to this drier air. As a result expect what the CAMs have been showing most of the night in that this activity will rapidly fall apart over western MN early this morning. We'll see a brief lull in activity through late morning as instability builds, but once it does, the combination of the weak front in western/central MN and a mid level impulse left over from activity over SoDak will result scattered thunderstorms developing early this afternoon. Like yesterday, eventual placement/movement of storms will be driven by the movement of outflow boundaries, which is hard to predict this far out. It's hard to really say anyone is in the clear from seeing storms today, so we eventually have widespread scattered thunderstorm wording. Agree with what the SPC has in their Day 1 convective outlook with a marginal risk of severe weather in the area of the boundary, which covers pretty much our whole area. Shear is weak, so we're once again looking at an isolated wind threat being our main severe threat. For Thursday night and Friday, the front just slowly shifts south and area of greatest thunderstorm coverage will do the same. The one thing we do see on Friday is the jet to our north strengthens, which should promote slightly better lift in its right entrance region down here, so we continue to run with some likely PoPs from south central MN up toward central WI along the boundary. Friday will be similar to today setup wise, so we're looking for more pulse type thunderstorms with little organization. The Day 2 severe outlook was pulled northwest from when it was the Day 3 outlook, but with the front still looking to be hung up over southern MN during the afternoon, would not be surprised if this marginal risk needs to be pulled further to the northwest with the mid day update. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 415 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2019 Not many changes in the long term, with quasi-zonal flow remaining in place, with severe low amplitude waves moving across the northern CONUS. This will result in near normal temperatures, with plenty of chances for precipitation. With that said, we are seeing one period with more a organized wave and better chances for precip Monday night through Tuesday night. Saturday, we continue to see the ECMWF dewpoints near 70 across southern MN, with a wave working across in the zonal flow. More models are starting to hint at this possibility, so did increase PoPs into the chance category on Saturday across the south. Sunday looks mainly dry, by we'll see southerly winds and moisture return show up in western MN by the afternoon, so a chance of a thunderstorm can not be ruled out in western MN Sunday. Next week, the main change seen in guidance was for a slower arrival for precip, pushing things out more to Tuesday/Tuesday night for us having our best chances. This wave looks similar to what we're dealing with now, so probably looking at scattered activity with the severe threat being low. For temperatures, the airmass next week looks slightly cooler than what we have now, with highs running more low to mid 80s during the extended and opposed to mid to upper 80s. Northeast winds over the weekend, will bring a brief break from the higher humidity air and will allow for a couple of cooler mornings Saturday and Sunday, but dewpoints will likely run back up to around 70 with the front coming through next week, so although our highs will be near normal next week, lows will be running above normal with the moist airmass in place. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning) Issued at 651 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2019 Once again, we are expecting scattered thunderstorms this afternoon that should fire shortly after 17z. Given the scattered nature of the convection, continued using VCTSs to cover the threat. Tonight looks to be fairly quiet, with the next round of shra/tsra moving into southwest MN Fri morning. Will have VFR conditions outside of TSRA today and tonight, there will be the potential for patchy br/fg once again depending on how much cloud cover we have through the night. Pressure gradient will remain baggy, so light and variable winds will continue that will be heavily influenced by outflow boundaries. KMSP...Main change was to move up thunder threat as upper impulse generated by TSRA over SoDak last night will lead to the potential for scattered TSRA development in the TC metro around 18z. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ Fri...VFR Chc MVFR/tsra. Wind NE 5 kt. Sat...VFR. Wind NE 5 kt. Sun...VFR. Wind SE 5 kt. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MPG LONG TERM...MPG AVIATION...MPG