400 
FXUS63 KFGF 250434
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1134 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1134 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019

Showers continue their downward trend. A few minor changes to POPs
to fit current radar. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019

Showers are exiting to our west with the first in a series of 
shortwave roughs, while the next mid level wave is currently moving 
into western ND. Ahead of this features steep lapse rates and weaker 
disorganized forcing have led to shower/storm development in ND. 

There have been pockets of weak vorticity overlapping the axis of 
good 0-3km CAPE in northeast ND that may allow for a few brief 
funnels, however it isn't an ideal set up in our CWA as it is 
further west where mid level low is. Lack of definite shift 
shifts/boundaries for surface vorticity does lower confidence in 
landspout potential, however enhanced stretching potential is 
still in place in that region and non supercell parameter has some
positive values. SPS was issued in coordination and based on
report of funnel at Rolla. MLCAPE in the 500 J/KG range (SB CAPE 
1000 J/KG) will support thunder, but due to the lack of deep shear
this won't be enough for severe hail/wind risk. 

Showers/storms will continue to track eastward with peak coverage
through the early evening. Loss of daytime heating/good lapse
rates should limit coverage further south. Upper low track along 
International Border overnight tonight should still support
scattered showers mainly along/north of Highway 2. This activity
should continue to track eastward through the day Tuesday ending 
west to east as forcing exits to our east and deeper dry air 
advects into the region from the west. 

Regarding temperatures: Little change expected in air mass with lows 
in the 50s to near 60 and highs on Tuesday in the 70s to near 80 
(warmest in the Red River Valley). 

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019

Wednesday through Friday...

The first portion of the long term brings a warming trend to the 
area caused by a large ridge building. Temperatures in several areas 
could reach near 90 degrees by Friday. Embedded shortwaves within 
the ridge provide chances for convection during the week. Some 
instability is also suggested by guidance, combined with ample 
daytime heating, which provides the possibility of some stronger 
storms.  

Saturday through Monday... 

The hot and unsettled pattern will continue into the weekend with 
the large ridge and embedded shortwaves. Guidance suggests Saturday 
to be the hottest day of the weekend with many areas reaching into 
the lower 90s, especially in the southern Red River Valley. These 
temperatures, combined with widespread RH values in the 50 to 60 
percent range, show that some heat indexes in the triple digits are 
possible. The pattern from the first portion of the long term 
appears to continue through the weekend keeping chances for showers 
and thunderstorms in the forecast. Some cooling down is possible for 
Monday as the ridge progresses east, but a high amount of 
uncertainty still exists at this time frame.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1134 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019

VCSH for another hour or so as diminishing showers continue at
some sites, but otherwise quiet with decreasing mid level clouds.
Light southwest winds will pick up out of the west tomorrow and
gust above 20 kts at times. Winds will decrease again after sunset
tomorrow evening. 

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...DJR
LONG TERM...BSW/WJB
AVIATION...JR