400 FXUS63 KFGF 250434 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1134 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 1134 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019 Showers continue their downward trend. A few minor changes to POPs to fit current radar. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 319 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019 Showers are exiting to our west with the first in a series of shortwave roughs, while the next mid level wave is currently moving into western ND. Ahead of this features steep lapse rates and weaker disorganized forcing have led to shower/storm development in ND. There have been pockets of weak vorticity overlapping the axis of good 0-3km CAPE in northeast ND that may allow for a few brief funnels, however it isn't an ideal set up in our CWA as it is further west where mid level low is. Lack of definite shift shifts/boundaries for surface vorticity does lower confidence in landspout potential, however enhanced stretching potential is still in place in that region and non supercell parameter has some positive values. SPS was issued in coordination and based on report of funnel at Rolla. MLCAPE in the 500 J/KG range (SB CAPE 1000 J/KG) will support thunder, but due to the lack of deep shear this won't be enough for severe hail/wind risk. Showers/storms will continue to track eastward with peak coverage through the early evening. Loss of daytime heating/good lapse rates should limit coverage further south. Upper low track along International Border overnight tonight should still support scattered showers mainly along/north of Highway 2. This activity should continue to track eastward through the day Tuesday ending west to east as forcing exits to our east and deeper dry air advects into the region from the west. Regarding temperatures: Little change expected in air mass with lows in the 50s to near 60 and highs on Tuesday in the 70s to near 80 (warmest in the Red River Valley). .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday) Issued at 319 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019 Wednesday through Friday... The first portion of the long term brings a warming trend to the area caused by a large ridge building. Temperatures in several areas could reach near 90 degrees by Friday. Embedded shortwaves within the ridge provide chances for convection during the week. Some instability is also suggested by guidance, combined with ample daytime heating, which provides the possibility of some stronger storms. Saturday through Monday... The hot and unsettled pattern will continue into the weekend with the large ridge and embedded shortwaves. Guidance suggests Saturday to be the hottest day of the weekend with many areas reaching into the lower 90s, especially in the southern Red River Valley. These temperatures, combined with widespread RH values in the 50 to 60 percent range, show that some heat indexes in the triple digits are possible. The pattern from the first portion of the long term appears to continue through the weekend keeping chances for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast. Some cooling down is possible for Monday as the ridge progresses east, but a high amount of uncertainty still exists at this time frame. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) Issued at 1134 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019 VCSH for another hour or so as diminishing showers continue at some sites, but otherwise quiet with decreasing mid level clouds. Light southwest winds will pick up out of the west tomorrow and gust above 20 kts at times. Winds will decrease again after sunset tomorrow evening. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...JR SHORT TERM...DJR LONG TERM...BSW/WJB AVIATION...JR