803 
FXUS64 KLCH 221459
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
959 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

.UPDATE...
The 22/12Z upper air sounding from KLCH still shows dry air in the
mid levels and capping in place that should preclude most of the
forecast area from seeing any significant shower activity. There
is a lead short wave over deep south Texas that will be nearing
the forecast area later today, and this may be enough to spark off
a few shower or storms, mainly over southeast Texas. Current
forecast already has some small pops in this area. Therefore, no
changes need at this point.

Rua

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 616 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019/ 

AVIATION...Patchy MVFR ceilings are occurring this morning,
however conditions will improve through the morning. Patchy MVFR
ceilings are expected to redevelop tonight. Winds will be
generally south through the period, and gusty late morning through
the afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 549 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019/ 

DISCUSSION...
Another steamy start to the day across the forecast area this
morning, with temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s and SFC 
dewpoints not trailing by much. Considerable multi-layered cloud
cover is noted on IR satellite imagery, with the radar scope
currently free of PCPN.

Region will continue to be influenced mostly by a deep layer ridge
stretching from the Bahamas NW into the Lower MS River Valley,
resulting in another day of hot and humid conditions. Considered
the need for another heat advisory, but given that apparent T's
were pretty marginal in terms of criteria yesterday, and should 
be close to if not just below these values today, opted to not
carry a hazard. It will still be quite uncomfortable, however, 
with max readings of around 105 expected. 

Other item of interest today is a shortwave trof evident in MSTR 
channel imagery near S Central TX. This feature is progged to 
eject NE across ERN TX today and into SE OK by this evening. While
the associated lift is forecast to be fairly weak in our area, it
could be sufficient enough to kick off some isolated convection
over E TX by late afternoon, and have carried low end PoPs
accordingly.

Another warm and muggy night is expected tonight, with better
areawide shower and thunderstorm chances in the forecast for SUN 
as the ridge erodes a bit with the approach of a WRN CONUS trof. 
Hot and humid conditions will otherwise continue.

The upper trof will continue eroding the ridge SUN night into MON
as it translates into the Mid/Upper MS River Valley, with models
continuing to forecast widespread convection across the ARKlATEX
that could drop SWD into the area prior to dissipating. Though
some solutions have backed away from this scenario, maintained the
PoP forecast mostly as is owing to overall low confidence.  

The ridge will continue slowly breaking down as it shifts TWD the
NW in the wake of this upper trof, traversing the area TUE and
WED. With the long fetch of tropical MSTR shunted to the W, lower
dewpoints and more seasonal temperatures are expected, especially
w/ regard to morning lows.

General weakness in the height field is progged to develop by 
late week between two ridge centers over the WRN Atlantic and 
Desert SW, with increasing rain chances expected.

13

MARINE...
Surface high pressure will continue to ridge west from the
Bahamas across the eastern Gulf, yielding a modest onshore flow
and building seas through the weekend. The high is forecast to
shift toward the central Gulf early next week, resulting in 
decreasing winds and seas. 

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  94  77  93  76 /  10   0  30  20 
LCH  91  80  91  79 /  10  10  30  20 
LFT  93  79  93  78 /  10   0  30  10 
BPT  92  81  90  79 /  20  10  40  20 

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Exercise Caution until 6 PM CDT this evening for 
     GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...07