803 FXUS64 KLCH 221459 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 959 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019 .UPDATE... The 22/12Z upper air sounding from KLCH still shows dry air in the mid levels and capping in place that should preclude most of the forecast area from seeing any significant shower activity. There is a lead short wave over deep south Texas that will be nearing the forecast area later today, and this may be enough to spark off a few shower or storms, mainly over southeast Texas. Current forecast already has some small pops in this area. Therefore, no changes need at this point. Rua && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 616 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019/ AVIATION...Patchy MVFR ceilings are occurring this morning, however conditions will improve through the morning. Patchy MVFR ceilings are expected to redevelop tonight. Winds will be generally south through the period, and gusty late morning through the afternoon. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 549 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019/ DISCUSSION... Another steamy start to the day across the forecast area this morning, with temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s and SFC dewpoints not trailing by much. Considerable multi-layered cloud cover is noted on IR satellite imagery, with the radar scope currently free of PCPN. Region will continue to be influenced mostly by a deep layer ridge stretching from the Bahamas NW into the Lower MS River Valley, resulting in another day of hot and humid conditions. Considered the need for another heat advisory, but given that apparent T's were pretty marginal in terms of criteria yesterday, and should be close to if not just below these values today, opted to not carry a hazard. It will still be quite uncomfortable, however, with max readings of around 105 expected. Other item of interest today is a shortwave trof evident in MSTR channel imagery near S Central TX. This feature is progged to eject NE across ERN TX today and into SE OK by this evening. While the associated lift is forecast to be fairly weak in our area, it could be sufficient enough to kick off some isolated convection over E TX by late afternoon, and have carried low end PoPs accordingly. Another warm and muggy night is expected tonight, with better areawide shower and thunderstorm chances in the forecast for SUN as the ridge erodes a bit with the approach of a WRN CONUS trof. Hot and humid conditions will otherwise continue. The upper trof will continue eroding the ridge SUN night into MON as it translates into the Mid/Upper MS River Valley, with models continuing to forecast widespread convection across the ARKlATEX that could drop SWD into the area prior to dissipating. Though some solutions have backed away from this scenario, maintained the PoP forecast mostly as is owing to overall low confidence. The ridge will continue slowly breaking down as it shifts TWD the NW in the wake of this upper trof, traversing the area TUE and WED. With the long fetch of tropical MSTR shunted to the W, lower dewpoints and more seasonal temperatures are expected, especially w/ regard to morning lows. General weakness in the height field is progged to develop by late week between two ridge centers over the WRN Atlantic and Desert SW, with increasing rain chances expected. 13 MARINE... Surface high pressure will continue to ridge west from the Bahamas across the eastern Gulf, yielding a modest onshore flow and building seas through the weekend. The high is forecast to shift toward the central Gulf early next week, resulting in decreasing winds and seas. 13 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 94 77 93 76 / 10 0 30 20 LCH 91 80 91 79 / 10 10 30 20 LFT 93 79 93 78 / 10 0 30 10 BPT 92 81 90 79 / 20 10 40 20 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...Small Craft Exercise Caution until 6 PM CDT this evening for GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475. && $$ PUBLIC...07