378 
FXUS64 KLUB 220943
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
443 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Forecast remains fairly uncertain through the weekend as
precipitation chances will be driven by a cold front and mesoscale
features that models typically have a hard time resolving. The
aforementioned cold front was making slow progress southward and
was located near a Tucumcari, NM to Guymon, OK to southeast Kansas
line as of 4 am. Most models have the front pushing into the far
southwestern Texas Panhandle shortly after sunrise and sinking
across much of the western South Plains by mid-day. The front
stalls there and gradually starts to lift northward as southerly
flow south of the front increases and where the frontal boundary
ends up this afternoon will determine where the best chances for 
PoPs will be. The RAP/HRRR have been very persistent over the last
5 hours of storms developing near/along the northern I-27 
corridor from south of Lubbock northward with the TTU-WRF 
developing storms a bit further north near Tulia but still near 
I-27. Other models are also developing storms but later after 
sunset and across the northeastern forecast area. Forecast 
soundings show that MLCAPE values will approach 2000-3000 J/kg 
east of the dryline/front across the Rolling Plains so any storms 
that develop will once again be capable of producing damaging 
downburst winds and potentially severe hail.

After sunset, models try to drop the front south again into Sunday 
morning but surface flow starts to veer as the trough starts to
approach from the west which will quickly mix any surface moisture
east of the forecast area through the day Sunday. The dryline
stalls out roughly along a Childress to Post line so there could
still be a potential for storms across the southeastern Rolling
Plains Sunday night into early Monday morning. After the trough
passes east of the forecast area Sunday night, a second cold front
will move through all of the forecast area by sunrise Monday and
stall out just south of us. This will push any storm chances out
of the area and help to keep highs in the mid to upper 80s across
the majority of the forecast area; a few low 90s may creep in
across the Rolling Plains and far southwestern South Plains.

Rest of the forecast still looks like a ridge will set up just
west of the forecast area over New Mexico into southeastern
Kansas by Tuesday. This will keep us under generally weak 
northerly flow with some variation in northwesterly to
northeasterly through the end of next week. Still cannot rule out
isolated storms rolling in from eastern New Mexico in the late
afternoon and early evening but the best chances look to be
Thursday night. For some reason, the models are generating quite a
bit of precipitation Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning in
a strong warm-air advection regime but cannot see any features at
the surface or aloft that would produce the widespread coverage
that the models are generating. Kept forecast dry for Tuesday and
pulled out any of the blotchy 15-20 PoPs the model blend was
putting in pretty much every afternoon and evening for the latter
half of next week save Thursday night. Temperatures will remain
near normal through this period.

Jordan

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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