378 FXUS64 KLUB 220943 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 443 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019 .DISCUSSION... Forecast remains fairly uncertain through the weekend as precipitation chances will be driven by a cold front and mesoscale features that models typically have a hard time resolving. The aforementioned cold front was making slow progress southward and was located near a Tucumcari, NM to Guymon, OK to southeast Kansas line as of 4 am. Most models have the front pushing into the far southwestern Texas Panhandle shortly after sunrise and sinking across much of the western South Plains by mid-day. The front stalls there and gradually starts to lift northward as southerly flow south of the front increases and where the frontal boundary ends up this afternoon will determine where the best chances for PoPs will be. The RAP/HRRR have been very persistent over the last 5 hours of storms developing near/along the northern I-27 corridor from south of Lubbock northward with the TTU-WRF developing storms a bit further north near Tulia but still near I-27. Other models are also developing storms but later after sunset and across the northeastern forecast area. Forecast soundings show that MLCAPE values will approach 2000-3000 J/kg east of the dryline/front across the Rolling Plains so any storms that develop will once again be capable of producing damaging downburst winds and potentially severe hail. After sunset, models try to drop the front south again into Sunday morning but surface flow starts to veer as the trough starts to approach from the west which will quickly mix any surface moisture east of the forecast area through the day Sunday. The dryline stalls out roughly along a Childress to Post line so there could still be a potential for storms across the southeastern Rolling Plains Sunday night into early Monday morning. After the trough passes east of the forecast area Sunday night, a second cold front will move through all of the forecast area by sunrise Monday and stall out just south of us. This will push any storm chances out of the area and help to keep highs in the mid to upper 80s across the majority of the forecast area; a few low 90s may creep in across the Rolling Plains and far southwestern South Plains. Rest of the forecast still looks like a ridge will set up just west of the forecast area over New Mexico into southeastern Kansas by Tuesday. This will keep us under generally weak northerly flow with some variation in northwesterly to northeasterly through the end of next week. Still cannot rule out isolated storms rolling in from eastern New Mexico in the late afternoon and early evening but the best chances look to be Thursday night. For some reason, the models are generating quite a bit of precipitation Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning in a strong warm-air advection regime but cannot see any features at the surface or aloft that would produce the widespread coverage that the models are generating. Kept forecast dry for Tuesday and pulled out any of the blotchy 15-20 PoPs the model blend was putting in pretty much every afternoon and evening for the latter half of next week save Thursday night. Temperatures will remain near normal through this period. Jordan && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 14