011 
FXUS64 KAMA 201728 AAB
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1228 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2019

.AVIATION...
Southwest winds are expected to be in the 10 to 15 knot range for all
of the site and they could get occasionally gusty at DHT. Any thunderstorms
are expected to remain north and east of the TAF sites during this
forecast. Southwest winds will decrease some overnight and then they
will increase into the 15 to 20 knot range with higher gusts at all
sites by mid to late morning. Skies are expected to be VFR. 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 615 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2019/ 

AVIATION...
12Z TAF Cycle

VFR conditions will continue at all three TAF sites through 12Z
Friday. South to southwest and west winds 10 to 20 knots at all
three TAF sites through 12Z Friday. The Guymon TAF site can expect
low level wind shear between about 06Z to 11Z Friday.

Schneider

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 452 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2019/ 

SHORT TERM...Today through Tonight.
Surface low over southeastern Colorado with a frontal boundary from 
the surface low across the Oklahoma Panhandle into southwestern and 
northern Kansas and then a dry line extending from the surface low 
southward across eastern New Mexico will allow for mainly southerly 
winds across the Panhandles today ahead of the frontal boundary and 
dry line. Shortwave trough embedded in zonal to west southwesterly 
upper flow will approach the forecast area by later today and this 
evening. Isolated convection could possibly develop after 21Z today 
or 00Z Friday over portions of the forecast area. However confidence 
low and used 10 POP tool for early this evening focusing mainly on 
the northern and eastern Panhandles. Bumped up max temps for today 
as models/guidance have been too low over the past couple or few 
days. However, the ECMWF guidance seems to be better in line for max 
temps today and went closer. Drier conditions expected after 03Z 
Friday. 

Schneider

LONG TERM...
Dry weather along with above normal temperatures is slated for
Friday courtesy of westerly to southwesterly flow in advance of a  
western U.S. upper level trof. Some locations will likely approach
or exceed 100 degrees again on Friday. The dryline is expected to
move eastward across the fcst area and eventually stall over the
southeast Texas Panhandle by late afternoon. The combination of 
this sfc feature coupled with marginal to adequate moisture, 
strong daytime heating and attendant atmospheric instability may 
result in the development of isold tstms towards 00Z Saturday. 
However, storm development will be fighting a mid level warm 
layer. If this cap is breached, then isold tstms would likely 
develop and would have the potential to become strong to severe. 
Large hail and damaging winds would be the primary hazards. 
Inserted slgt chc pops on the order of 15 to 20 percent in the 
southeast Texas Panhandle Friday evening to account for the above
mentioned possibility. 

As the upper level trof of low pressure moves across the southern
and central plains states Saturday afternoon through early Monday
morning, the threat for showers and tstms will return during this
time period for mainly northern and eastern sections of the fcst 
area. Have gone with the consensus model blend pops Saturday 
afternoon through Sunday night, which are on the order of slight 
chc to chc values. A weak cold front is also expected to move 
across the region Saturday night. An upper level ridge of high
pressure is then forecast to build into the area during the early
to middle part of next week. Have utilized a consensus model 
blend of all weather elements during this time period. 

02

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

15/24