011 FXUS64 KAMA 201728 AAB AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1228 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2019 .AVIATION... Southwest winds are expected to be in the 10 to 15 knot range for all of the site and they could get occasionally gusty at DHT. Any thunderstorms are expected to remain north and east of the TAF sites during this forecast. Southwest winds will decrease some overnight and then they will increase into the 15 to 20 knot range with higher gusts at all sites by mid to late morning. Skies are expected to be VFR. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 615 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2019/ AVIATION... 12Z TAF Cycle VFR conditions will continue at all three TAF sites through 12Z Friday. South to southwest and west winds 10 to 20 knots at all three TAF sites through 12Z Friday. The Guymon TAF site can expect low level wind shear between about 06Z to 11Z Friday. Schneider PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 452 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2019/ SHORT TERM...Today through Tonight. Surface low over southeastern Colorado with a frontal boundary from the surface low across the Oklahoma Panhandle into southwestern and northern Kansas and then a dry line extending from the surface low southward across eastern New Mexico will allow for mainly southerly winds across the Panhandles today ahead of the frontal boundary and dry line. Shortwave trough embedded in zonal to west southwesterly upper flow will approach the forecast area by later today and this evening. Isolated convection could possibly develop after 21Z today or 00Z Friday over portions of the forecast area. However confidence low and used 10 POP tool for early this evening focusing mainly on the northern and eastern Panhandles. Bumped up max temps for today as models/guidance have been too low over the past couple or few days. However, the ECMWF guidance seems to be better in line for max temps today and went closer. Drier conditions expected after 03Z Friday. Schneider LONG TERM... Dry weather along with above normal temperatures is slated for Friday courtesy of westerly to southwesterly flow in advance of a western U.S. upper level trof. Some locations will likely approach or exceed 100 degrees again on Friday. The dryline is expected to move eastward across the fcst area and eventually stall over the southeast Texas Panhandle by late afternoon. The combination of this sfc feature coupled with marginal to adequate moisture, strong daytime heating and attendant atmospheric instability may result in the development of isold tstms towards 00Z Saturday. However, storm development will be fighting a mid level warm layer. If this cap is breached, then isold tstms would likely develop and would have the potential to become strong to severe. Large hail and damaging winds would be the primary hazards. Inserted slgt chc pops on the order of 15 to 20 percent in the southeast Texas Panhandle Friday evening to account for the above mentioned possibility. As the upper level trof of low pressure moves across the southern and central plains states Saturday afternoon through early Monday morning, the threat for showers and tstms will return during this time period for mainly northern and eastern sections of the fcst area. Have gone with the consensus model blend pops Saturday afternoon through Sunday night, which are on the order of slight chc to chc values. A weak cold front is also expected to move across the region Saturday night. An upper level ridge of high pressure is then forecast to build into the area during the early to middle part of next week. Have utilized a consensus model blend of all weather elements during this time period. 02 && .AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ 15/24