393 
FXUS62 KMLB 161930
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
330 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2019

.DISCUSSION...

Current-Tonight...A weak mid level low just west of the area will 
allow deep moisture to stream over the area in SE/S flow in the 
lower to mid levels. The strongest convection into late afternoon 
will occur across Lake county as storms drift west. Locally heavy 
rainfall, dangerous cloud to ground lightning and wind gusts to 
around 45 mph will occur with the strongest storms through around 6 
pm. Will continue some showers in the chance range across eastern 
zones into this evening with isolated showers and some debris rain 
from the anvils of convection to the west. Short range guidance 
indicates some increase in the SE flow across the Treasure Coast 
late tonight with lift from the mid level low still near the the 
area. This should allow for a regeneration of convection across the 
Atlantic that will track onshore toward the Treasure Coast late 
tonight. Skies will be mainly cloudy with lows in the lower 70s.

For Monday...Have adjusted POPS up to categorical range (80 percent) 
south based on a blend of the guidance and favorable deep moisture 
and lift from the weak mid level low near the area. Will continue 70 
percent chance for shower/storms for nrn sections. Gusty winds, 
frequent lightning and locally heavy rainfall amounts up to 2-3 
inches may occur Monday with the strongest storms. Previous... 

Monday-Thursday...A progressive/zonal flow pattern develops across 
the CONUS with a lead short wave trough moving across the eastern 
CONUS Tuesday-Wednesday, followed by a second trough which reaches 
the eastern CONUS and the longitude of Florida by Thursday night.

The surface pattern starts with the Atlantic ridge axis across NOFL 
Mon with local SE-S wind flow, veering to S-SW Tue, and an even more 
established/stronger SW flow pattern for Wed-Thu as the ridge axis 
gets shunted back across SOFL and eventually the Keys/Straits. ECFL 
remains in a high PWAT air mass through Wednesday, with Thursday a 
transition day toward a drier pattern as the ridge axis starts to 
rebuild north toward the area. For the most part, POPs will remain 
in the likely (60-70 percent) range through mid week, before the 
local air mass begins deeper moisture lifts NE away from the area.

Max temps Mon-Tue look to be near normal to perhaps a degree or two 
below, owing to early onset of precip in some areas, Then trending 
near to above in developing SW/offshore flow.

Friday-Sunday(modified)...Mid level trough rapidly departs the 
eastern CONUS Fri afternoon, leading to ridge building overhead for 
next weekend. The surface ridge will respond to this by building 
north into ECFL with a drier air mass and lower POPS areawide along 
with hotter max temps, especially over the interior (M90s by Fri-
Sat). 12Z guidance indicate mid level ridge may begin to break down 
some into Sunday with a slight increase in moisture from the north. 
Will adjust POPs up slightly for Day 7 into the low scattered range.

&&

.AVIATION...
Sct slow moving SHRA/TS inland from the coast into this evening, 
with isold SHRA along coastal sites into the overnight period. Any 
notable reductions in vsby/sky ascd with storms should be brief and 
No IFR conditions warrant mention in forecasts past 17/00z. 
Primarily VFR for the overnight period into Monday at 17/16Z. 
Developing SHRA/TS aft with high chc of SHRA/TS aft 17/16Z through 
aftn.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight...Southerly winds early this evening will become SE and 
increase to 10-15 knots across the srn waters. Expect an increase in 
late night showers/storms across the Treasure Coast which will move 
toward the coast through sunrise. Seas 2 ft near shore to 3 ft 
offshore.

Mon-Thu(modified)...Generally favorable wind/sea conditions are 
expected to develop on the open Atlantic from early to mid week. 
However, the concern for numerous, strong offshore-moving 
thunderstorms will increase, especially through Wednesday. Outside 
of thunderstorms, expect seas to remain 2FT range near shore, and 
around 3FT offshore.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  72  85  72  88 /  30  70  40  70 
MCO  71  87  73  89 /  30  70  40  70 
MLB  73  84  72  86 /  40  80  50  70 
VRB  72  85  72  86 /  50  80  50  70 
LEE  73  87  74  88 /  20  70  30  70 
SFB  72  87  71  89 /  20  70  40  70 
ORL  71  87  73  88 /  20  70  40  70 
FPR  71  84  72  87 /  50  80  50  70 

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

Volkmer/Glitto/Pendergrast/Smith