393 FXUS62 KMLB 161930 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 330 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2019 .DISCUSSION... Current-Tonight...A weak mid level low just west of the area will allow deep moisture to stream over the area in SE/S flow in the lower to mid levels. The strongest convection into late afternoon will occur across Lake county as storms drift west. Locally heavy rainfall, dangerous cloud to ground lightning and wind gusts to around 45 mph will occur with the strongest storms through around 6 pm. Will continue some showers in the chance range across eastern zones into this evening with isolated showers and some debris rain from the anvils of convection to the west. Short range guidance indicates some increase in the SE flow across the Treasure Coast late tonight with lift from the mid level low still near the the area. This should allow for a regeneration of convection across the Atlantic that will track onshore toward the Treasure Coast late tonight. Skies will be mainly cloudy with lows in the lower 70s. For Monday...Have adjusted POPS up to categorical range (80 percent) south based on a blend of the guidance and favorable deep moisture and lift from the weak mid level low near the area. Will continue 70 percent chance for shower/storms for nrn sections. Gusty winds, frequent lightning and locally heavy rainfall amounts up to 2-3 inches may occur Monday with the strongest storms. Previous... Monday-Thursday...A progressive/zonal flow pattern develops across the CONUS with a lead short wave trough moving across the eastern CONUS Tuesday-Wednesday, followed by a second trough which reaches the eastern CONUS and the longitude of Florida by Thursday night. The surface pattern starts with the Atlantic ridge axis across NOFL Mon with local SE-S wind flow, veering to S-SW Tue, and an even more established/stronger SW flow pattern for Wed-Thu as the ridge axis gets shunted back across SOFL and eventually the Keys/Straits. ECFL remains in a high PWAT air mass through Wednesday, with Thursday a transition day toward a drier pattern as the ridge axis starts to rebuild north toward the area. For the most part, POPs will remain in the likely (60-70 percent) range through mid week, before the local air mass begins deeper moisture lifts NE away from the area. Max temps Mon-Tue look to be near normal to perhaps a degree or two below, owing to early onset of precip in some areas, Then trending near to above in developing SW/offshore flow. Friday-Sunday(modified)...Mid level trough rapidly departs the eastern CONUS Fri afternoon, leading to ridge building overhead for next weekend. The surface ridge will respond to this by building north into ECFL with a drier air mass and lower POPS areawide along with hotter max temps, especially over the interior (M90s by Fri- Sat). 12Z guidance indicate mid level ridge may begin to break down some into Sunday with a slight increase in moisture from the north. Will adjust POPs up slightly for Day 7 into the low scattered range. && .AVIATION... Sct slow moving SHRA/TS inland from the coast into this evening, with isold SHRA along coastal sites into the overnight period. Any notable reductions in vsby/sky ascd with storms should be brief and No IFR conditions warrant mention in forecasts past 17/00z. Primarily VFR for the overnight period into Monday at 17/16Z. Developing SHRA/TS aft with high chc of SHRA/TS aft 17/16Z through aftn. && .MARINE... Tonight...Southerly winds early this evening will become SE and increase to 10-15 knots across the srn waters. Expect an increase in late night showers/storms across the Treasure Coast which will move toward the coast through sunrise. Seas 2 ft near shore to 3 ft offshore. Mon-Thu(modified)...Generally favorable wind/sea conditions are expected to develop on the open Atlantic from early to mid week. However, the concern for numerous, strong offshore-moving thunderstorms will increase, especially through Wednesday. Outside of thunderstorms, expect seas to remain 2FT range near shore, and around 3FT offshore. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 72 85 72 88 / 30 70 40 70 MCO 71 87 73 89 / 30 70 40 70 MLB 73 84 72 86 / 40 80 50 70 VRB 72 85 72 86 / 50 80 50 70 LEE 73 87 74 88 / 20 70 30 70 SFB 72 87 71 89 / 20 70 40 70 ORL 71 87 73 88 / 20 70 40 70 FPR 71 84 72 87 / 50 80 50 70 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ Volkmer/Glitto/Pendergrast/Smith