031 
FXUS65 KBOU 112031
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
231 PM MDT Tue Jun 11 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 230 PM MDT Tue Jun 11 2019

Surface low pressure over northeast New Mexico and a surface high
over Wyoming will continue to bring gusty north to northeast 
winds into the early evening hours. Winds will decrease around 
sunset as the airmass stabilizes. The left exit region of the jet 
and a weak upper level trough is bringing scattered showers and 
isolated thunderstorms to far eastern Wyoming, western South 
Dakota, and western Nebraska. Some of this activity is expected to
clip far northeast Colorado. Airmass is dry at the time with dew 
points in the upper 20s to mid 30s over most of the area. 
Northeast low level winds will advect moisture into the area, but 
don't expect enough moisture for convection except over the 
northeast plains of Colorado. The showers and storms should end by
midnight as the best lift shifts east of the region. 

It will be cooler Wednesday with readings in the lower to mid 70s 
across northeast Colorado. Cooler surface temperatures and slight 
warming aloft will help to stabilize the airmass Wednesday. Only 
chance for convection looks to be over Park county where a few 
showers and storms will be possible. 

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 230 PM MDT Tue Jun 11 2019

Wednesday night a large upper-level trough of low pressure will 
cover much of the central and eastern U.S. with an upper-level 
ridge of high pressure stretching from the Desert Southwest into 
the northern Rockies. Colorado will remain between these two 
systems under a weak northwesterly flow aloft. On Thursday, the 
upper ridge will flatten out as it moves over Colorado. Isolated 
afternoon and evening showers and storms are expected across the 
CWA, most numerous over the high country. Most of the activity 
will be high-based with light to moderate rainfall and gusty 
winds. However, higher values of CAPE and stronger shear across 
far northeastern Colorado could support a few strong to severe 
storms during the late afternoon and evening.

For Friday through early next week, the weather looks to be more 
active as a series of shortwaves moves across the central and 
northern Rockies and moisture increases. Forecast soundings show 
drier air across the Front Range urban corridor but more saturated
conditions in the northeast. More activity is expected Saturday 
and Sunday afternoon, with more numerous showers and storms. 
Locally heavy rainfall is possible with the stronger storms as 
soundings show PW up to 1 inch. Intensity of the storms will be 
limited by a lack of CAPE and shear.

Early next week, another upper trough beings developing over the
northern Rockies. Increased shear Monday could support severe
storms however there is still some uncertainty.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 230 PM MDT Tue Jun 11 2019

North to northeast winds to 30 knots are expected to linger after
00Z. By 03Z, winds are expected to decrease. Light and variable 
winds are expected after 06Z. For Wednesday northerly winds return
with gusts to 30 knots. Clouds will increase through 00Z with a 
broken deck around 10,000 feet. Ceilings should lower towards 12Z 
with the ceilings dropping to 6000 to 8000 feet.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Meier
LONG TERM...JK/EJD
AVIATION...Meier