031 FXUS65 KBOU 112031 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 231 PM MDT Tue Jun 11 2019 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 230 PM MDT Tue Jun 11 2019 Surface low pressure over northeast New Mexico and a surface high over Wyoming will continue to bring gusty north to northeast winds into the early evening hours. Winds will decrease around sunset as the airmass stabilizes. The left exit region of the jet and a weak upper level trough is bringing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to far eastern Wyoming, western South Dakota, and western Nebraska. Some of this activity is expected to clip far northeast Colorado. Airmass is dry at the time with dew points in the upper 20s to mid 30s over most of the area. Northeast low level winds will advect moisture into the area, but don't expect enough moisture for convection except over the northeast plains of Colorado. The showers and storms should end by midnight as the best lift shifts east of the region. It will be cooler Wednesday with readings in the lower to mid 70s across northeast Colorado. Cooler surface temperatures and slight warming aloft will help to stabilize the airmass Wednesday. Only chance for convection looks to be over Park county where a few showers and storms will be possible. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday) Issued at 230 PM MDT Tue Jun 11 2019 Wednesday night a large upper-level trough of low pressure will cover much of the central and eastern U.S. with an upper-level ridge of high pressure stretching from the Desert Southwest into the northern Rockies. Colorado will remain between these two systems under a weak northwesterly flow aloft. On Thursday, the upper ridge will flatten out as it moves over Colorado. Isolated afternoon and evening showers and storms are expected across the CWA, most numerous over the high country. Most of the activity will be high-based with light to moderate rainfall and gusty winds. However, higher values of CAPE and stronger shear across far northeastern Colorado could support a few strong to severe storms during the late afternoon and evening. For Friday through early next week, the weather looks to be more active as a series of shortwaves moves across the central and northern Rockies and moisture increases. Forecast soundings show drier air across the Front Range urban corridor but more saturated conditions in the northeast. More activity is expected Saturday and Sunday afternoon, with more numerous showers and storms. Locally heavy rainfall is possible with the stronger storms as soundings show PW up to 1 inch. Intensity of the storms will be limited by a lack of CAPE and shear. Early next week, another upper trough beings developing over the northern Rockies. Increased shear Monday could support severe storms however there is still some uncertainty. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) Issued at 230 PM MDT Tue Jun 11 2019 North to northeast winds to 30 knots are expected to linger after 00Z. By 03Z, winds are expected to decrease. Light and variable winds are expected after 06Z. For Wednesday northerly winds return with gusts to 30 knots. Clouds will increase through 00Z with a broken deck around 10,000 feet. Ceilings should lower towards 12Z with the ceilings dropping to 6000 to 8000 feet. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Meier LONG TERM...JK/EJD AVIATION...Meier