472 
FXUS61 KCLE 061612
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1212 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in from the north today and be the
primary influence over the local weather through at least
Saturday. A cold front will approach from the west on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Update...Stratus hanging tough but trend still in place of
increasing sun for the afternoon so adjusted sky and also
adjusted hourly temps.

Original...Fog has followed in the wake of the front early 
this morning. With a number of observation sites coming in with 
less than a quarter of a mile have gone ahead with the Dense Fog
Advisory through mid morning. Most others will have low 
ceilings/clouds that will slowly lift and scatter going through 
the afternoon hours. High pressure is settling in to our north 
and we will keep a light north flow going today, veering more 
northeasterly for Friday. Area will see more sun Friday, 
although there may be a few high clouds still skirting the 
southern counties. Temperatures will be cooler than yesterday 
and cooler near the lake. will have upper 60s/near 70 near the 
lake to the lower/mid 70s inland. After morning lows in the 50s 
Friday, highs will end up in the mid/upper 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The first half of the weekend remains quiet across the Great 
Lakes region. A highly amplified pattern with a closed upper low
over the southern CONUS and a strong upper ridge over the 
northern CONUS will be in place. At the surface, high pressure 
will be in place over the Great Lakes and will strengthen as it 
reaches the eastern Lakes by Saturday afternoon. With the 
amplitude of the system and several mechanic promoting sinking 
motion over the region, will continue a dry forecast for the 
area through Saturday evening. 

Timing has continued to trend slower with the impacts of the closed 
upper low as it reaches the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Sunday. At 
this time, it appears that the low weakens and becomes an open wave 
over the eastern CONUS by Sunday night. A surface low will then 
extend a weak trough into the region and be the focus for any shower 
and thunderstorm activity on Sunday into Sunday night. With sluggish 
timing, will slowly ramp up PoPs on Sunday with the max on Sunday 
night being a 50/50 PoP across the western half of the area. 
Temperatures through the entire period appear to be near or a couple 
degrees above normal.

The important hazard to note will be the potential for lakeshore 
flooding on the western basin of Lake Erie for Friday night and into 
the weekend. Strengthening high pressure over the eastern Lakes with 
low pressure attempting to enter from the southwest will allow for 
easterly winds to increase over the lake. Elevated east flow with 
record water levels will potentially allow for flooding of the 
coastal areas of NW Ohio.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
An upper trough moving through the northern CONUS will support 
a cold front that will sweep through the Great Lakes region. 
Showers and thunderstorms appear likely with this frontal 
passage and will maintain Monday as the best chance of rain for 
the extended forecast. Some weak upper ridging moves into the 
Great Lakes on Tuesday and will support the return of high 
pressure and, in turn, dry weather. A secondary trough enters 
the region on Wednesday and another disturbance could bring a 
chance of rain for the middle of next week. Temperatures will be
cooler than normal after the cold frontal passage on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
Widespread IFR/LIFR to start the morning with fog and low
ceilings. Lowest conditions will be most persistent for
CLE/ERI/YNG. Otherwise slow trend will be for improvement
through MVFR and to VFR by 00Z. VFR will then be expected for
tonight although CLE/ERI/YNG may see non-VFR return overnight.
Low confidence in this materializing. High pressure will be 
centered to our north and winds will be light north/north-
northeast through the period. 

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible Sunday and Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure building into the Great Lakes region will allow 
for winds over the lake to diminish to light and variable 
through tonight. High pressure will continue east to over the 
eastern Lakes on Friday and strengthen as a weak trough of low 
pressure attempts to enter from the southwest. The resultant 
pressure gradient over the lake will allow for easterly winds to
increase over the lake to 15-20 knots and waves will build by 
Saturday afternoon over the western basin, perhaps enough for an
SCA. In addition, this elevated east flow with record water 
levels will potentially allow for flooding of the coastal areas 
of NW Ohio. The trough of low pressure finally nudges north on 
Sunday and the dominant surface high pushes off the East Coast. 
Winds will try to shift around to more of a southeast direction,
but may not be southeast until late in the day. A cold front 
approaches from the west on Monday and winds will shift around 
to the northwest on Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Oudeman
NEAR TERM...TK/Oudeman
SHORT TERM...Sefcovic
LONG TERM...Sefcovic
AVIATION...Oudeman
MARINE...Sefcovic