472 FXUS61 KCLE 061612 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 1212 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build in from the north today and be the primary influence over the local weather through at least Saturday. A cold front will approach from the west on Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Update...Stratus hanging tough but trend still in place of increasing sun for the afternoon so adjusted sky and also adjusted hourly temps. Original...Fog has followed in the wake of the front early this morning. With a number of observation sites coming in with less than a quarter of a mile have gone ahead with the Dense Fog Advisory through mid morning. Most others will have low ceilings/clouds that will slowly lift and scatter going through the afternoon hours. High pressure is settling in to our north and we will keep a light north flow going today, veering more northeasterly for Friday. Area will see more sun Friday, although there may be a few high clouds still skirting the southern counties. Temperatures will be cooler than yesterday and cooler near the lake. will have upper 60s/near 70 near the lake to the lower/mid 70s inland. After morning lows in the 50s Friday, highs will end up in the mid/upper 70s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... The first half of the weekend remains quiet across the Great Lakes region. A highly amplified pattern with a closed upper low over the southern CONUS and a strong upper ridge over the northern CONUS will be in place. At the surface, high pressure will be in place over the Great Lakes and will strengthen as it reaches the eastern Lakes by Saturday afternoon. With the amplitude of the system and several mechanic promoting sinking motion over the region, will continue a dry forecast for the area through Saturday evening. Timing has continued to trend slower with the impacts of the closed upper low as it reaches the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Sunday. At this time, it appears that the low weakens and becomes an open wave over the eastern CONUS by Sunday night. A surface low will then extend a weak trough into the region and be the focus for any shower and thunderstorm activity on Sunday into Sunday night. With sluggish timing, will slowly ramp up PoPs on Sunday with the max on Sunday night being a 50/50 PoP across the western half of the area. Temperatures through the entire period appear to be near or a couple degrees above normal. The important hazard to note will be the potential for lakeshore flooding on the western basin of Lake Erie for Friday night and into the weekend. Strengthening high pressure over the eastern Lakes with low pressure attempting to enter from the southwest will allow for easterly winds to increase over the lake. Elevated east flow with record water levels will potentially allow for flooding of the coastal areas of NW Ohio. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... An upper trough moving through the northern CONUS will support a cold front that will sweep through the Great Lakes region. Showers and thunderstorms appear likely with this frontal passage and will maintain Monday as the best chance of rain for the extended forecast. Some weak upper ridging moves into the Great Lakes on Tuesday and will support the return of high pressure and, in turn, dry weather. A secondary trough enters the region on Wednesday and another disturbance could bring a chance of rain for the middle of next week. Temperatures will be cooler than normal after the cold frontal passage on Monday. && .AVIATION /12Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/... Widespread IFR/LIFR to start the morning with fog and low ceilings. Lowest conditions will be most persistent for CLE/ERI/YNG. Otherwise slow trend will be for improvement through MVFR and to VFR by 00Z. VFR will then be expected for tonight although CLE/ERI/YNG may see non-VFR return overnight. Low confidence in this materializing. High pressure will be centered to our north and winds will be light north/north- northeast through the period. OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible Sunday and Monday. && .MARINE... High pressure building into the Great Lakes region will allow for winds over the lake to diminish to light and variable through tonight. High pressure will continue east to over the eastern Lakes on Friday and strengthen as a weak trough of low pressure attempts to enter from the southwest. The resultant pressure gradient over the lake will allow for easterly winds to increase over the lake to 15-20 knots and waves will build by Saturday afternoon over the western basin, perhaps enough for an SCA. In addition, this elevated east flow with record water levels will potentially allow for flooding of the coastal areas of NW Ohio. The trough of low pressure finally nudges north on Sunday and the dominant surface high pushes off the East Coast. Winds will try to shift around to more of a southeast direction, but may not be southeast until late in the day. A cold front approaches from the west on Monday and winds will shift around to the northwest on Monday night into Tuesday. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Oudeman NEAR TERM...TK/Oudeman SHORT TERM...Sefcovic LONG TERM...Sefcovic AVIATION...Oudeman MARINE...Sefcovic