849 
FXUS63 KMPX 042042
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
342 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019

A remnant MCV lasted through the morning and was reinvigorated by
late morning as it encountered an increasingly moist and unstable
airmass. Since, thunderstorms have intensified and expanded across
the area with strong winds produced by the strongest storms.

For the remainder of the evening, this first round of showers and
thunderstorms will continue working through southern MN and
western WI over the next few hours. Despite modest shear profiles
in the area, a very unstable airmass has developed strong cold
pools with the strongest cells, which has lead to strong downbust
winds. New development is already underway across the eastern 
Dakotas and far western MN, in response to destabilization along 
the surface trough/frontal boundary. So, expect the second round 
of showers and thunderstorms to move through mainly from 8PM 
through 1AM from west to east, with a few showers lingering across
eastern MN and western WI overnight.

Dry high pressure from the north will move in overnight through
tomorrow morning, meaning dry and pleasant weather will set in for
tomorrow and tomorrow night.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019

The longer term trends continue to focus warmer conditions early
in the period with sharp cooling following a trough later in the
weekend and early next week. 

Upper level ridging will provide generally warm and dry conditions
to the region, Thursday and lingering through Friday night. Large
area of high pressure will remain nearly stationary over the Great
Lakes allowing for rather pleasant conditions. Temperatures are 
expected to range some 5 degrees above normal for a change. 

Later Saturday and Sunday, a southern stream trough will lift
northeast ahead a deeper western CONUS trough across the central
Mississippi River valley. This should lift deeper moisture north 
ahead of the trough and surface front over the Dakotas. This 
front will move east and move through the region Sunday into 
Monday. Clouds and shower threat will hold temperatures in the 70s
for Sunday. Northwest flow becomes established once again into 
early next week with even cooler temperatures expected, trending 
about 5 degrees below normal. The deterministic models draw in 
another trough and surface cold front through the region around 
Tuesday of next week, along with the chance of showers and 
thunderstorms. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday) Issued at 
207 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019

Main issue is thunderstorms moving across central MN. These 
storms will continue moving SE roughly at 25 knots, so main
changes to the TAFs were to move up the start time. Also,
increased NW winds in tempo groups. Winds will be generally
southerly, except if a storm is in the vicinity, in which case the
wind will likely be northwesterly or northerly. The front itself
is seeing convective initiation across South Dakota, so another
round of showers and storms is still possible later tonight along
the front.

KMSP...Expect thunder to reach MSP by 4PM but latest trends
indicate diminishing wind threat as outflow boundary has out run
the storms. Still think a switch to northwest winds of around 25
knots is briefly possible shortly before the storms arrive.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Thu...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts.
Fri-Sat...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.
Sun...Chance MVFR/TSRA. Wind SE 5-10 kts becoming NW.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...SPD