849 FXUS63 KMPX 042042 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 342 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 300 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019 A remnant MCV lasted through the morning and was reinvigorated by late morning as it encountered an increasingly moist and unstable airmass. Since, thunderstorms have intensified and expanded across the area with strong winds produced by the strongest storms. For the remainder of the evening, this first round of showers and thunderstorms will continue working through southern MN and western WI over the next few hours. Despite modest shear profiles in the area, a very unstable airmass has developed strong cold pools with the strongest cells, which has lead to strong downbust winds. New development is already underway across the eastern Dakotas and far western MN, in response to destabilization along the surface trough/frontal boundary. So, expect the second round of showers and thunderstorms to move through mainly from 8PM through 1AM from west to east, with a few showers lingering across eastern MN and western WI overnight. Dry high pressure from the north will move in overnight through tomorrow morning, meaning dry and pleasant weather will set in for tomorrow and tomorrow night. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 300 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019 The longer term trends continue to focus warmer conditions early in the period with sharp cooling following a trough later in the weekend and early next week. Upper level ridging will provide generally warm and dry conditions to the region, Thursday and lingering through Friday night. Large area of high pressure will remain nearly stationary over the Great Lakes allowing for rather pleasant conditions. Temperatures are expected to range some 5 degrees above normal for a change. Later Saturday and Sunday, a southern stream trough will lift northeast ahead a deeper western CONUS trough across the central Mississippi River valley. This should lift deeper moisture north ahead of the trough and surface front over the Dakotas. This front will move east and move through the region Sunday into Monday. Clouds and shower threat will hold temperatures in the 70s for Sunday. Northwest flow becomes established once again into early next week with even cooler temperatures expected, trending about 5 degrees below normal. The deterministic models draw in another trough and surface cold front through the region around Tuesday of next week, along with the chance of showers and thunderstorms. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday) Issued at 207 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019 Main issue is thunderstorms moving across central MN. These storms will continue moving SE roughly at 25 knots, so main changes to the TAFs were to move up the start time. Also, increased NW winds in tempo groups. Winds will be generally southerly, except if a storm is in the vicinity, in which case the wind will likely be northwesterly or northerly. The front itself is seeing convective initiation across South Dakota, so another round of showers and storms is still possible later tonight along the front. KMSP...Expect thunder to reach MSP by 4PM but latest trends indicate diminishing wind threat as outflow boundary has out run the storms. Still think a switch to northwest winds of around 25 knots is briefly possible shortly before the storms arrive. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ Thu...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts. Fri-Sat...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts. Sun...Chance MVFR/TSRA. Wind SE 5-10 kts becoming NW. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...SPD LONG TERM...DWE AVIATION...SPD