786 
FXUS63 KILX 041748
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1248 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1101 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019

Cluster of showers that impacted the far northern KILX CWA earlier
this morning has now lifted into northeast Illinois: however, a
band of isolated showers lingers along/east of the I-57 corridor.
These showers will gradually shift into Indiana by early 
afternoon, leaving behind dry conditions across the board for much
of the day. Isolated showers/thunder may re-develop late this 
afternoon along/west of the Illinois River in closer proximity to 
a destabilizing airmass across Missouri/Iowa: however, most of 
this activity will remain to the west until this evening. 
Afternoon high temperatures will top out in the lower to middle 
80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019

A warm air advection band of showers and isolated thunderstorms 
was along and north of Galesburg to Lacon to north of Hoopeston 
and tracking eastward across far northern CWA early this morning. 
A smaller cluster of showers and isolated thunderstorms was over 
west central IL west of Petersburg and tracking northeast. Mostly
cloudy skies over central IL while mostly clear to partly cloudy
skies in southeast IL. Weak 1020 mb high pressure was near the 
OH/WV/KY border giving a southerly flow of milder air over central 
IL. Temperatures were in the low to mid 60s in central IL, with upper
50s/lower 60s in southeast IL where winds were light to calm and
less cloud cover.

Latest CAM models mainly show isolated convection over mainly
areas west of I-57 today with highest pops today early this
morning north of Peoria. Increasing low level jet will develop
more widespread convection during tonight and track thru
central/se IL during tonight mainly after sunset. SPC day1 outlook
continues marginal risk over most of CWA except near the Wabash
river, while slight risk of severe storms with 15% hail and
damaging winds (2% risk of tornadoes) over west central IL from
Peoria to Jacksonville west. WPC day1 has marginal chance of 
excessive rainfall over IL tonight with a slight chance over of 
central and west central IL. Rainfall amounts tonight average a
half to three quarter inches with locally 1 inch or higher
amounts. Highs today in the lower 80s and getting more humid
especially over western CWA where dewpoints rise into the 60s with
breezy SSW winds increasing to 10-20 mph and gusts to 25 mph. Lows
tonight in the mid to upper 60s. 

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019

SPC day2 outlook has marginal risk of severe storms Wed
afternoon into mid evening Wed from IL river se while slight risk
of severe storms with large hail and damaging winds along and
south of a Springfield to Rantoul line. Airmass gets quite
unstable over sw/southern CWA Wed afternoon though bulk shear is
not too high at 20-30 kts, so tornado threat would be lower. A
warm day in the mid 80s on Wed with a few spots reaching upper 80s
from I-72 south. A cold front to drop southward thru central IL
during mid/late Wed afternoon and thru southeast IL Wed night.
Models have trended quicker with frontal passage and also are
pushing the front further south on Thu to near the KY/TN border by
midday Thu. This will push marginal risk of severe storms south of
CWA and area now looks drier overnight Wed night and Thu 
especially north of I-70. Highs Thu in the lower 80s, warmest 
south of I-70 with mid 80s by highway 50.

SW CWA will have best chances of convection Thu night and Friday
closer to frontal boundary to our south and also a cutoff upper 
level low tracking slowly from the sw states into the southern 
plains and Ozark region on Friday. Areas from I-74 ne appear to
stay drier into Friday. Highs Friday around 80F. The cutoff upper
level low to track into the mid MS river valley on Saturday and
likely spreads convection back ne over CWA this weekend, with
moderate to heavy rains possible again from late Fri night thru
Sat evening especially from I-72 south. Between 2-3 inches of rain
possible thru Sunday with locally higher amounts possible southern
CWA. Low pressure system to be near central/se IL by sunset 
Sunday and then drifts east into the Ohio river valley by Monday 
with convection shifting east with it.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019

Scattered convection will develop across southern Iowa/northern
Missouri this afternoon...then will push across central Illinois
this evening. Model solutions vary greatly, but based on regional
satellite/radar trends, think the WRF-ARW may have the best handle
on the situation. Given continued questions concerning exact areal
coverage of convection, have opted to maintain just VCTS at the
terminals. Have however adjusted the timing for potential
thunder...starting at 23z at KPIA, then at 02z further east at
KCMI. Once this wave of scattered thunderstorms departs,
overcast/dry conditions will return late tonight into Wednesday
morning. S/SW winds will gust over 20kt at times this afternoon,
then will veer to the SW and decrease to around 10kt tonight.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Barnes