786 FXUS63 KILX 041748 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1248 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 1101 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019 Cluster of showers that impacted the far northern KILX CWA earlier this morning has now lifted into northeast Illinois: however, a band of isolated showers lingers along/east of the I-57 corridor. These showers will gradually shift into Indiana by early afternoon, leaving behind dry conditions across the board for much of the day. Isolated showers/thunder may re-develop late this afternoon along/west of the Illinois River in closer proximity to a destabilizing airmass across Missouri/Iowa: however, most of this activity will remain to the west until this evening. Afternoon high temperatures will top out in the lower to middle 80s. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019 A warm air advection band of showers and isolated thunderstorms was along and north of Galesburg to Lacon to north of Hoopeston and tracking eastward across far northern CWA early this morning. A smaller cluster of showers and isolated thunderstorms was over west central IL west of Petersburg and tracking northeast. Mostly cloudy skies over central IL while mostly clear to partly cloudy skies in southeast IL. Weak 1020 mb high pressure was near the OH/WV/KY border giving a southerly flow of milder air over central IL. Temperatures were in the low to mid 60s in central IL, with upper 50s/lower 60s in southeast IL where winds were light to calm and less cloud cover. Latest CAM models mainly show isolated convection over mainly areas west of I-57 today with highest pops today early this morning north of Peoria. Increasing low level jet will develop more widespread convection during tonight and track thru central/se IL during tonight mainly after sunset. SPC day1 outlook continues marginal risk over most of CWA except near the Wabash river, while slight risk of severe storms with 15% hail and damaging winds (2% risk of tornadoes) over west central IL from Peoria to Jacksonville west. WPC day1 has marginal chance of excessive rainfall over IL tonight with a slight chance over of central and west central IL. Rainfall amounts tonight average a half to three quarter inches with locally 1 inch or higher amounts. Highs today in the lower 80s and getting more humid especially over western CWA where dewpoints rise into the 60s with breezy SSW winds increasing to 10-20 mph and gusts to 25 mph. Lows tonight in the mid to upper 60s. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019 SPC day2 outlook has marginal risk of severe storms Wed afternoon into mid evening Wed from IL river se while slight risk of severe storms with large hail and damaging winds along and south of a Springfield to Rantoul line. Airmass gets quite unstable over sw/southern CWA Wed afternoon though bulk shear is not too high at 20-30 kts, so tornado threat would be lower. A warm day in the mid 80s on Wed with a few spots reaching upper 80s from I-72 south. A cold front to drop southward thru central IL during mid/late Wed afternoon and thru southeast IL Wed night. Models have trended quicker with frontal passage and also are pushing the front further south on Thu to near the KY/TN border by midday Thu. This will push marginal risk of severe storms south of CWA and area now looks drier overnight Wed night and Thu especially north of I-70. Highs Thu in the lower 80s, warmest south of I-70 with mid 80s by highway 50. SW CWA will have best chances of convection Thu night and Friday closer to frontal boundary to our south and also a cutoff upper level low tracking slowly from the sw states into the southern plains and Ozark region on Friday. Areas from I-74 ne appear to stay drier into Friday. Highs Friday around 80F. The cutoff upper level low to track into the mid MS river valley on Saturday and likely spreads convection back ne over CWA this weekend, with moderate to heavy rains possible again from late Fri night thru Sat evening especially from I-72 south. Between 2-3 inches of rain possible thru Sunday with locally higher amounts possible southern CWA. Low pressure system to be near central/se IL by sunset Sunday and then drifts east into the Ohio river valley by Monday with convection shifting east with it. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) Issued at 1248 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019 Scattered convection will develop across southern Iowa/northern Missouri this afternoon...then will push across central Illinois this evening. Model solutions vary greatly, but based on regional satellite/radar trends, think the WRF-ARW may have the best handle on the situation. Given continued questions concerning exact areal coverage of convection, have opted to maintain just VCTS at the terminals. Have however adjusted the timing for potential thunder...starting at 23z at KPIA, then at 02z further east at KCMI. Once this wave of scattered thunderstorms departs, overcast/dry conditions will return late tonight into Wednesday morning. S/SW winds will gust over 20kt at times this afternoon, then will veer to the SW and decrease to around 10kt tonight. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Barnes SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM...07 AVIATION...Barnes