249 
FXUS64 KMOB 030430 AAB
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1130 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2019

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z issuance...VFR conditions forecast overnight. Light and
variable winds in the near term, take on a southerly component by
Monday afternoon. /10

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 627 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2019/ 

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
00Z issuance...VFR conditions forecast overnight. Light and
variable winds. /10

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 401 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2019/ 

NEAR TERM /Now Through Monday/...Still expecting much less 
coverage of showers and thunderstorms, compared to yesterday, 
across much of the forecast area this afternoon and this evening 
due mostly to increased subsidence in boundary layer as high 
pressure builds from the west. Latest radar loops show a well 
defined seabreeze circulation moving inland with still little 
coverage. Latest model soundings also depict weaker lapse rates 
aloft also supporting this reasoning. Believe this trend will 
continue through this evening with maybe a few more short lived 
showers or thunderstorms forming before sunset. For late tonight 
and early Mon morning still believe we could see a few nocturnal 
showers or thunderstorms mostly offshore and near the immediate 
coast though with very limited coverage. With limited forcing and 
instability any convection that does form will be short lived 
similar to today. Aloft a weak mid level impulse will continue to 
shift southeast across the northern central gulf states and 
adjacent gulf waters this afternoon and evening followed by a 
broad upper ridge of high pressure building across the northern 
gulf states from the west. With this dry pattern through Mon we 
may see an isolated shower or thunderstorm forming along an 
afternoon seabreeze though very short lived. Similar to last night
some patchy fog will be possible though very local, forming 
mainly around sunrise Mon morning. 

Temperatures will continue to be well above seasonal norms running 5 
to 8 degrees above average. Lows tonight will range from the upper 
60s to lower 70 well inland from the coast and the mid to upper 70s 
further south near the coast or generally along and south of the I-
10 corridor. Highs Mon will climb to the mid 90s for most inland 
areas and the upper 80s to lower 90s along the immediate coast. With 
lower dewpoint temps near the surface on Mon heat indices will range 
from the mid to upper 90s for most locations. 32/ee

SHORT TERM /Monday night Through Wednesday night/...An upper 
ridge over the south central states advances slowly across the 
north central Gulf coast states through the period while an upper 
trof advances into the south central states. A surface high 
located over eastern states meanwhile shifts into the western 
Atlantic and sets up a surface ridge over the northern Gulf 
Tuesday into Wednesday. A combination of the sea breeze 
circulation and this low level pattern change results in a weak 
frontal boundary located over the southern portion of the forecast
area early Monday evening shifting into the northern Gulf Monday 
night then returning northward into the forecast area on Tuesday. 
The frontal boundary dissipates Tuesday night with a light 
southerly flow following through Wednesday night. Subsidence 
effects associated with the upper ridge building into the region 
will likely suppress convective development on Tuesday despite the
presence of the weak frontal boundary returning northward into 
the area. Have opted to continue with a dry forecast for Tuesday 
and will continue to monitor. On Wednesday, the axis of the upper
ridge is expected to begin to shift east of the forecast area and
subsidence effects will in turn lessen mainly over the western 
half of the area. This allows for MLCAPES of 500-1000 J/kg to 
develop over the western half, and with daytime heating and the 
sea breeze have kept slight chance pops in this portion. Highs on 
Tuesday will be in the mid 90s except for lower 90s near the 
coast. Highs on Wednesday will be moderated slightly with lower to
mid 90s expected except for upper 80s at the coast. Lows Monday 
night range from the mid to upper 60s well inland to the lower 70s
closer to the coast then trend warmer through Wednesday night 
when lows range from the lower 70s inland to the mid 70s at the 
coast. /29

LONG TERM /Thursday Through Sunday/...An upper trof over the
central states amplifies and takes on a positive tilt while moving
into the eastern states during the remainder of the period. An
associated surface low develops over the south central states and
moves off towards the Mississippi/Ohio river confluence over the
weekend.  A surface ridge otherwise persists over the northern 
Gulf and promotes a southerly flow over the forecast area. The
convective environment improves over the area with the approach of
the upper trof along with increasing deep layer moisture, 
although some lingering subsidence effects may be present over the
eastern portion of the area on Thursday. Have gone with good 
chance up to likely pops for much of the period as a series of 
shortwaves move across the area in a convectively favorable
environment with MLCAPES up to 2000 J/kg each afternoon. /29

MARINE...A light to moderate southerly wind flow will continue to 
develop each afternoon through Tue as a broad surface ridge of high 
pressure to the north slowly shifts east. A better southerly flow is 
expected later in the week as the ridge of high pressure to the 
north settles along the eastern seaboard and western Atlantic. Winds 
and seas will be higher in isolated to scattered showers and 
thunderstorms through much of the week. 32/ee

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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