249 FXUS64 KMOB 030430 AAB AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Mobile AL 1130 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2019 .DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below. && .AVIATION... 06Z issuance...VFR conditions forecast overnight. Light and variable winds in the near term, take on a southerly component by Monday afternoon. /10 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 627 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2019/ DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below. AVIATION... 00Z issuance...VFR conditions forecast overnight. Light and variable winds. /10 PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 401 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2019/ NEAR TERM /Now Through Monday/...Still expecting much less coverage of showers and thunderstorms, compared to yesterday, across much of the forecast area this afternoon and this evening due mostly to increased subsidence in boundary layer as high pressure builds from the west. Latest radar loops show a well defined seabreeze circulation moving inland with still little coverage. Latest model soundings also depict weaker lapse rates aloft also supporting this reasoning. Believe this trend will continue through this evening with maybe a few more short lived showers or thunderstorms forming before sunset. For late tonight and early Mon morning still believe we could see a few nocturnal showers or thunderstorms mostly offshore and near the immediate coast though with very limited coverage. With limited forcing and instability any convection that does form will be short lived similar to today. Aloft a weak mid level impulse will continue to shift southeast across the northern central gulf states and adjacent gulf waters this afternoon and evening followed by a broad upper ridge of high pressure building across the northern gulf states from the west. With this dry pattern through Mon we may see an isolated shower or thunderstorm forming along an afternoon seabreeze though very short lived. Similar to last night some patchy fog will be possible though very local, forming mainly around sunrise Mon morning. Temperatures will continue to be well above seasonal norms running 5 to 8 degrees above average. Lows tonight will range from the upper 60s to lower 70 well inland from the coast and the mid to upper 70s further south near the coast or generally along and south of the I- 10 corridor. Highs Mon will climb to the mid 90s for most inland areas and the upper 80s to lower 90s along the immediate coast. With lower dewpoint temps near the surface on Mon heat indices will range from the mid to upper 90s for most locations. 32/ee SHORT TERM /Monday night Through Wednesday night/...An upper ridge over the south central states advances slowly across the north central Gulf coast states through the period while an upper trof advances into the south central states. A surface high located over eastern states meanwhile shifts into the western Atlantic and sets up a surface ridge over the northern Gulf Tuesday into Wednesday. A combination of the sea breeze circulation and this low level pattern change results in a weak frontal boundary located over the southern portion of the forecast area early Monday evening shifting into the northern Gulf Monday night then returning northward into the forecast area on Tuesday. The frontal boundary dissipates Tuesday night with a light southerly flow following through Wednesday night. Subsidence effects associated with the upper ridge building into the region will likely suppress convective development on Tuesday despite the presence of the weak frontal boundary returning northward into the area. Have opted to continue with a dry forecast for Tuesday and will continue to monitor. On Wednesday, the axis of the upper ridge is expected to begin to shift east of the forecast area and subsidence effects will in turn lessen mainly over the western half of the area. This allows for MLCAPES of 500-1000 J/kg to develop over the western half, and with daytime heating and the sea breeze have kept slight chance pops in this portion. Highs on Tuesday will be in the mid 90s except for lower 90s near the coast. Highs on Wednesday will be moderated slightly with lower to mid 90s expected except for upper 80s at the coast. Lows Monday night range from the mid to upper 60s well inland to the lower 70s closer to the coast then trend warmer through Wednesday night when lows range from the lower 70s inland to the mid 70s at the coast. /29 LONG TERM /Thursday Through Sunday/...An upper trof over the central states amplifies and takes on a positive tilt while moving into the eastern states during the remainder of the period. An associated surface low develops over the south central states and moves off towards the Mississippi/Ohio river confluence over the weekend. A surface ridge otherwise persists over the northern Gulf and promotes a southerly flow over the forecast area. The convective environment improves over the area with the approach of the upper trof along with increasing deep layer moisture, although some lingering subsidence effects may be present over the eastern portion of the area on Thursday. Have gone with good chance up to likely pops for much of the period as a series of shortwaves move across the area in a convectively favorable environment with MLCAPES up to 2000 J/kg each afternoon. /29 MARINE...A light to moderate southerly wind flow will continue to develop each afternoon through Tue as a broad surface ridge of high pressure to the north slowly shifts east. A better southerly flow is expected later in the week as the ridge of high pressure to the north settles along the eastern seaboard and western Atlantic. Winds and seas will be higher in isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms through much of the week. 32/ee && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: http://weather.gov/mob