735 
FXUS64 KMAF 261704
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1204 PM CDT Sun May 26 2019

.DISCUSSION...

See 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Low ceilings are expected to lift in the early afternoon hours.
There is a chance of thunderstorms across the area this afternoon
and evening, especially for HOB and INK. Winds will generally be
gusty out of the south to southeast this afternoon into the
evening hours. Winds are expected to decrease around 06z to 09z
with low ceilings developing around 09z to 12z.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 445 AM CDT Sun May 26 2019/ 

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper ridge remaining anchored over the Gulf 
Coast states, while the progression of troughs down the west coast 
continues, maintaining dynamic SW flow aloft over West Texas and 
Southeast New Mexico.  At the sfc, a trough remains anchored over 
west Texas, working in tandem w/a 45+kt LLJ via KMAF VWP to keep 
Gulf moisture return steady, and backing the dryline up past Dell 
City. 

Yesterday's trough is currently a shortwave over SoCal/Baja, and a 
stronger trough over SW OR/NW CA will move thru the Bay Area later 
today and kick it east thru the region.  As the shortwave passes 
over, it may bring enough momentum to the upper elevations of the 
Guadalupes for a marginal high wind event, and we've issued a 
warning to cover this.  This shortwave will also aid in 
redevelopment of convection along the dryline late morning/early 
afternoon.  Models once again yield mucapes this afternoon 2500-4000 
J/kg, 45-55+kt deep lyr shear, mid-lvl lapse rates of 7-8C/km, and 
dcapes in excess of 1000 J/kg at times.  Hail/winds look to be the 
main concerns.  

The trough over OR/CA is still forecast to dig east to near the Four 
Corners by 00Z Tue.  Models dry out somewhat Memorial Day, which 
continues to look like a down day for convection.  Another marginal 
high wind event is possible for the upper elevations of the 
Guadalupes, and we've issued a watch for that.  As the trough passes 
thru the Four Corners Mon night, models bring a shortwave thru SW 
flow aloft and initiate isolated convection along the dryline, which 
should be mid-CWA during the evening.  Tue, a Pac front in the wake 
of the ejecting trough will keep the dryline east of the area most 
of the day, but return flow Tue night will push the dryline back up 
thru the lwr Trans Pecos, for a chance of convection mainly over the 
SE zones.  Wed, models still try to bring a cold front into the 
region, making Wed our coolest day this forecast.  

In the extended, models begin flattening out the upper ridge that 
has been anchored over the Gulf Coast States, leaving zonal flow 
over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.  This will generally favor 
the dryline sloshing back and forth diurnally, leaving a window open 
for convection each day.  Models hint at finally slipping the ridge 
from east to west, and this is reflected in increasing temps at the 
tail end of the extended.  If so, our severe season may be coming to 
an end.  Stay tuned. 

FIRE WEATHER...

A drying trend looks likely across western portions of the area 
today through Monday. Conditions today will warrant an RFD in the 
Guadalupe Mountains where 20 ft winds will increase over 20 kts and 
relative humidity will decrease to 10-15%. As an upper low moves 
closer to the region Monday, the dryline will be pushed further east 
and shift the thermal ridge axis over the Permian Basin. A deep 
mixed layer will overspread the western zones which will yield 5-10% 
relative humidity and RFTI values in the 6-7 range between Chaves 
and Culberson Counties. 20 ft winds will increase over 20 kts again 
in the Guadalupe Mountains, but will remain at or below 20 kts in 
the plains. Decided to issue a Fire Weather Watch for the Guadalupe 
Mountains on Monday where combined RFTI (7-8 Extreme) and ERC 
(50th percentile) values are highest.  

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     85  69  91  68 /  10  10   0  20 
Carlsbad                       95  60  92  60 /  10  10   0   0 
Dryden                         89  70  93  71 /  20  10  10  10 
Fort Stockton                  89  68  96  65 /  20  10  10  10 
Guadalupe Pass                 90  59  86  57 /  10   0   0   0 
Hobbs                          88  61  90  58 /  20  30   0  10 
Marfa                          91  57  91  54 /  10  10   0  10 
Midland Intl Airport           86  69  92  66 /  10  20   0  20 
Odessa                         86  68  93  66 /  10  20   0  20 
Wink                           92  65  96  63 /  20  20   0  10 

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Fire Weather Watch Monday afternoon for Guadalupe Mountains.

     High Wind Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 10 PM MDT this 
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     High Wind Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for 
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening 
     for Guadalupe Mountains.

     High Wind Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 10 PM MDT this 
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet.

     High Wind Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for 
     Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet.

&&

$$

99/99/99