735 FXUS64 KMAF 261704 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1204 PM CDT Sun May 26 2019 .DISCUSSION... See 18z aviation discussion below. && .AVIATION... Low ceilings are expected to lift in the early afternoon hours. There is a chance of thunderstorms across the area this afternoon and evening, especially for HOB and INK. Winds will generally be gusty out of the south to southeast this afternoon into the evening hours. Winds are expected to decrease around 06z to 09z with low ceilings developing around 09z to 12z. && PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 445 AM CDT Sun May 26 2019/ DISCUSSION... WV imagery shows the upper ridge remaining anchored over the Gulf Coast states, while the progression of troughs down the west coast continues, maintaining dynamic SW flow aloft over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. At the sfc, a trough remains anchored over west Texas, working in tandem w/a 45+kt LLJ via KMAF VWP to keep Gulf moisture return steady, and backing the dryline up past Dell City. Yesterday's trough is currently a shortwave over SoCal/Baja, and a stronger trough over SW OR/NW CA will move thru the Bay Area later today and kick it east thru the region. As the shortwave passes over, it may bring enough momentum to the upper elevations of the Guadalupes for a marginal high wind event, and we've issued a warning to cover this. This shortwave will also aid in redevelopment of convection along the dryline late morning/early afternoon. Models once again yield mucapes this afternoon 2500-4000 J/kg, 45-55+kt deep lyr shear, mid-lvl lapse rates of 7-8C/km, and dcapes in excess of 1000 J/kg at times. Hail/winds look to be the main concerns. The trough over OR/CA is still forecast to dig east to near the Four Corners by 00Z Tue. Models dry out somewhat Memorial Day, which continues to look like a down day for convection. Another marginal high wind event is possible for the upper elevations of the Guadalupes, and we've issued a watch for that. As the trough passes thru the Four Corners Mon night, models bring a shortwave thru SW flow aloft and initiate isolated convection along the dryline, which should be mid-CWA during the evening. Tue, a Pac front in the wake of the ejecting trough will keep the dryline east of the area most of the day, but return flow Tue night will push the dryline back up thru the lwr Trans Pecos, for a chance of convection mainly over the SE zones. Wed, models still try to bring a cold front into the region, making Wed our coolest day this forecast. In the extended, models begin flattening out the upper ridge that has been anchored over the Gulf Coast States, leaving zonal flow over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. This will generally favor the dryline sloshing back and forth diurnally, leaving a window open for convection each day. Models hint at finally slipping the ridge from east to west, and this is reflected in increasing temps at the tail end of the extended. If so, our severe season may be coming to an end. Stay tuned. FIRE WEATHER... A drying trend looks likely across western portions of the area today through Monday. Conditions today will warrant an RFD in the Guadalupe Mountains where 20 ft winds will increase over 20 kts and relative humidity will decrease to 10-15%. As an upper low moves closer to the region Monday, the dryline will be pushed further east and shift the thermal ridge axis over the Permian Basin. A deep mixed layer will overspread the western zones which will yield 5-10% relative humidity and RFTI values in the 6-7 range between Chaves and Culberson Counties. 20 ft winds will increase over 20 kts again in the Guadalupe Mountains, but will remain at or below 20 kts in the plains. Decided to issue a Fire Weather Watch for the Guadalupe Mountains on Monday where combined RFTI (7-8 Extreme) and ERC (50th percentile) values are highest. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 85 69 91 68 / 10 10 0 20 Carlsbad 95 60 92 60 / 10 10 0 0 Dryden 89 70 93 71 / 20 10 10 10 Fort Stockton 89 68 96 65 / 20 10 10 10 Guadalupe Pass 90 59 86 57 / 10 0 0 0 Hobbs 88 61 90 58 / 20 30 0 10 Marfa 91 57 91 54 / 10 10 0 10 Midland Intl Airport 86 69 92 66 / 10 20 0 20 Odessa 86 68 93 66 / 10 20 0 20 Wink 92 65 96 63 / 20 20 0 10 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...Fire Weather Watch Monday afternoon for Guadalupe Mountains. High Wind Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 10 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County. High Wind Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County. TX...Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for Guadalupe Mountains. High Wind Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 10 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet. High Wind Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet. && $$ 99/99/99